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Gentex Corporation (NASDAQ:GNTX) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Gentex missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$2.3b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.76, falling short by 2.5% and 5.7% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Gentex
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gentex's ten analysts is for revenues of US$2.56b in 2025. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 12% to US$1.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.07 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at US$32.97, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gentex at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Gentex's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Gentex's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.5% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 8.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Gentex is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gentex. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.