One of the biggest stories of last week was how Generation Bio Co. (NASDAQ:GBIO) shares plunged 21% in the week since its latest second-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$2.35. Revenues came in 201% better than analyst models expected, at US$4.1m, although statutory losses were 12% larger than expected, at US$0.31 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Generation Bio after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Generation Bio

After the latest results, the consensus from Generation Bio's seven analysts is for revenues of US$11.4m in 2024, which would reflect an uncomfortable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 26% to US$1.77. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$8.37m and US$1.79 per share in losses. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts upgrading this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

There were no major changes to the US$7.50consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Generation Bio at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 25% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 142% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Generation Bio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.