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Back in January, shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) plunged after the company took a $7.5 billion after-tax charge related to rising claims on an old long-term-care reinsurance portfolio. The cash impact was even greater. The company's GE Capital unit will have to increase its insurance reserves by $15 billion over the next seven years.
Shortly after this disclosure, I argued that investors had overreacted by knocking more than $20 billion off GE's market cap in the span of a week. Yet in the past two months, GE stock has continued to tumble, falling below $13 on Monday before rallying on Tuesday. This has slashed its market cap by another $25 billion from its already-depressed level.
General Electric Stock Performance data by YCharts.
Concerns about GE's balance sheet and GE Capital's "hidden" liabilities have helped drive these declines. Let's take a look at whether investors should worry about the potential for more big charges at GE Capital.
An opaque behemoth
For the past decade, General Electric's management has been trying to slim the company down and focus on its best industrial businesses. By contrast, Jack Welch -- its legendary former CEO -- spent most of the 1980s and 1990s building up a sprawling conglomerate that earned most of its money from financial services.
These investments in financial businesses that are not related to General Electric's core industrial operations are coming back to bite the company. GE has exited most of its non-core financial businesses, but it has retained some liabilities, particularly for businesses that it shut down rather than selling. The reinsurance business responsible for the massive special charge announced in January falls into this category.
Additionally, GE Capital could still be held liable for mortgage fraud between 2005 and 2007 at its former WMC Mortgage subsidiary, even though that unit was sold (and later shut down).
Analysts wave caution flags
A recent article in The Wall Street Journal tried to wrestle with the potential for further losses at GE Capital. Several people cited in the article -- including GE's CFO, a credit rating analyst, and a Wall Street stock analyst -- said they don't expect any further significant charges.
The GECAS aircraft leasing unit is one of GE Capital's biggest businesses. Image source: General Electric.
On the flip side, two analysts at investment managers noted that GE Capital still has lots of assets and liabilities. Due to the company's size, it doesn't disclose that much detail about GE Capital, which makes it risky to assume that all of the bad news has already come out.