Has General Dynamics Corporation's (NYSE:GD) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Tue, May 20, 2025, 6:00 AM 4 min read

Most readers would already be aware that General Dynamics' (NYSE:GD) stock increased significantly by 16% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to General Dynamics' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for General Dynamics is:

18% = US$4.0b ÷ US$22b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.18 in profit.

View our latest analysis for General Dynamics

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of General Dynamics' Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

To begin with, General Dynamics seems to have a respectable ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 12% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. Yet, General Dynamics has posted measly growth of 2.8% over the past five years. This is interesting as the high returns should mean that the company has the ability to generate high growth but for some reason, it hasn't been able to do so. Such a scenario is likely to take place when a company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that General Dynamics' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 13% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth — NYSE:GD Past Earnings Growth May 20th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is GD fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is General Dynamics Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While General Dynamics has a decent three-year median payout ratio of 41% (or a retention ratio of 59%), it has seen very little growth in earnings. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, General Dynamics has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 37%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 19%.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that General Dynamics has some positive attributes. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.