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Shareholders might have noticed that GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. (TSE:GDI) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to CA$33.75 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CA$0.07, some 61% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CA$639m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for GDI Integrated Facility Services
Following the latest results, GDI Integrated Facility Services' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$2.60b in 2024. This would be a modest 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 9.0% to CA$0.62 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$2.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.76 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 5.0% to CA$41.50, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values GDI Integrated Facility Services at CA$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$38.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that GDI Integrated Facility Services' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that GDI Integrated Facility Services is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.