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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strong US Retail Sales to Deliver sub-$1.18

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It’s another quiet day for the Pound, with no economic indicators due from the UK for the markets to consider. There are also no scheduled Bank of England speeches to draw interest.

The lack of stats and speeches will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment ahead of key stats from the US.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.06% to $1.18295.

This morning, the Pound rose to an early high of $1.18517 before falling to a low of $1.18038.

The Pound left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.

GBPUSD 150722 Daily Chart
GBPUSD 150722 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

A GBP/USD hold above the $1.1825 pivot would bring the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1890 and the Thursday high of $1.18925 into play.

The GBP/USD pair would need a marked pickup in risk sentiment to support a breakout from the morning high of $1.18517.

In the event of an extended rally, the GBP/USD pair would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1958 and resistance at $1.2000.

The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.2091.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.1758 in play.

In case of an extended sell-off, the GBP/USD pair could test support at $1.17 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.1692.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.1559.

GBPUSD 150722 Hourly Chart
GBPUSD 150722 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, the Pound sat below 50-day EMA, currently at $1.19300.

The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA: GBP/USD negative.

A breakout from R1 would support a run at the 50-day EMA and R2 to target the 100-day EMA, currently at $1.20350.

GBPUSD 150722 4-Hourly Chart
GBPUSD 150722 4-Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is another big day ahead for the global financial markets. US retail sales will be the key driver of the day.

Upbeat retail sales figures would support the more hawkish Fed rate hike bets that would pressure the GBP/USD pair.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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