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Galapagos NV (AMS:GLPG) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last week. But will that heal all the wounds inflicted over 5 years of declines? Unlikely. Five years have seen the share price descend precipitously, down a full 89%. While the recent increase might be a green shoot, we're certainly hesitant to rejoice. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
While the last five years has been tough for Galapagos shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
View our latest analysis for Galapagos
Given that Galapagos didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over half a decade Galapagos reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 27% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 14% per year in that period. This kind of price performance makes us very wary, especially when combined with falling revenue. Of course, the poor performance could mean the market has been too severe selling down. That can happen.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Galapagos is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Galapagos stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
A Different Perspective
Galapagos shareholders are down 33% for the year, but the market itself is up 5.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 14% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Galapagos (1 is a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.