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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term IOOF Holdings Ltd (ASX:IFL) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 59% over a half decade. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 24% in the last 90 days.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for IOOF Holdings isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for IOOF Holdings
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over five years IOOF Holdings' earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on IOOF Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of IOOF Holdings, it has a TSR of -44% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
IOOF Holdings shareholders gained a total return of 2.2% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 8% per year, over five years. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand IOOF Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for IOOF Holdings you should be aware of.