Fugro N.V. (AMS:FUR) Shares Could Be 50% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Mon, May 27, 2024, 10:07 PM 6 min read

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Fugro N.V. (AMS:FUR) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Fugro

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€123.1m	€171.6m	€253.6m	€269.9m	€282.7m	€292.9m	€301.0m	€307.7m	€313.3m	€318.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 6.43%	Est @ 4.77%	Est @ 3.60%	Est @ 2.78%	Est @ 2.21%	Est @ 1.81%	Est @ 1.53%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	€116	€153	€213	€214	€211	€207	€200	€193	€186	€178

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.9b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €318m× (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (6.0%– 0.9%) = €6.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €6.3b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= €3.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €5.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €24.2, the company appears quite good value at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf — ENXTAM:FUR Discounted Cash Flow May 28th 2024

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fugro as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.110. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fugro

Strength

Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.

Opportunity

Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Dutch market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Fugro, we've put together three further elements you should further research:

Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Fugro that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does FUR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTAM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.