Well that's all we have time for today — thanks for following along. Be sure to join us again tomorrow when we'll be back for more.

It's Nvidia results day tomorrow so we'll be bringing you all the top commentary and expectations ahead of the announcement.

Until then... have a good evening!

The arrest of the billionaire Telegram founder on French soil was not a political decision, the country's president has said after Pavel Durov was arrested at at Le Bourget airport over the weekend, amid allegations about offences related to the messaging service.

While Telegram says its CEO has "nothing to hide", French media reports suggest the executive remained in custody into Sunday as authorities investigate allegations of fraud, drug trafficking, organised crime, terrorism promotion and cyber-bullying related to the platform.

His arrest came as part of a larger investigation related to charges of "complicity" in illegal transactions and possessing and distributing pornographic images of minors, the Paris prosecutor's office said.

The statement mentioned 12 different offences under investigation that it said were linked to organised crime.

President Emmanuel Macron posted on social media that he had seen “false information” regarding France following Durov’s arrest, and added: "This is in no way a political decision. It is up to the judges to decide."

Read the full article here

Soft drinks maker Britvic (BVIC.L) is set to be taken over by Danish giant Carlsberg (CARL-B.CO) after shareholders voted almost unanimously for the deal.

Britvic, whose brands include J20, Robinsons and R White’s lemonade, accepted a £3.3bn offer in July after rejecting previous takeover offers from Carlsberg on the grounds that they undervalued the company.

On Tuesday the company said that all the motions it had put to shareholders had passed. The number of votes for was 165,809,035 (99.69%) and against was 515,673 (0.31%).

Commenting on reports that the government intends to raise taxes following prime minister Keir Starmer's speech this morning, Tom Clougherty, executive director at the free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs, said:

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) has kept interest rates steady for the first time in more than a year, ending a run of 15 consecutive cuts.

The central bank kept the rate unchanged at 6.75% after inflation came in above a 4% benchmark in July. This is down from a peak of 18% last year.

Last month NBH cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, reducing from 7% to 6.75%.

Hungary’s interest rates are still the highest in the European Union.

Ocado has opened its first Australian outlet as part of a tie-up with domestic retailer Coles.

The group has launched one of its flagship robotic warehouse, known as a customer fulfilment centre (CFCs), for Coles to serve customers in the Melbourne and Sydney areas.

Ocado chief executive Tim Steiner said:

Ocado now operates 25 CFCs across the globe.

The pound hit its strongest level in more than two years against the US dollar as traders remain focused on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Sterling rose by 0.2% on Tuesday to a new high against the US dollar, the highest since March 2022.

It came as Fed chair Jerome Powell gave little doubt that the central bank will cut interest rates on 18 September.

In a speech last week he said: “The time has come for policy to adjust.”

More than 3,500 current and former workers at Next (NXT.L) have won the final stage of a six-year legal battle for equal pay.

Law firm Leigh Day, which represented the claimants, said the Employment Tribunal had ruled that Next failed to show that it was not sex discrimination to pay their female sales consultant lower hourly pay rates than workhouse operatives.

However, Next said it would appeal against the ruling.

Hobbycraft has been bought by retail investor Modella Capital for an undisclosed sum. It comes after private equity investor Bridgepoint put the chain up for sale in February.

Bridgepoint bought Hobbycraft for £100m in 2010, but was reportedly considering a sale for between £60m and £70m.

Dominic Jordan, Hobbycraft’s chief executive, said:

Hobbycraft’s pre-tax losses rose to £16.2m for the 12 months ended 19 February, widening from £7.4m a year earlier, even as revenues rose from £203m to £211m, according to ShareCast.

Ryanair (RYA.IR) shares rose more than 6% on Tuesday after the airline's boss Michael O'Leary said fare decreases will be limited to 5%, reassuring investors who had feared steeper reductions in prices.

Last month the biggest airline in Europe warned that fares could drop by more than 10% as it missed analyst estimates for sales. Shares in the airline plunged 15% last month on the back of the news.

The risk of what O'Leary at the time called an "ugly scenario" of double-digit falls in average fares "looks like it has disappeared."

"While fares were kind of softening during April, May and June, that has levelled out," he said.

Asked if Ryanair was still seeing price resistance when it tried to raise prices on last-minute fares, O'Leary said: "It's not the same price resistance."

Brent oil prices are steady today, stabilising after three consecutive sessions of gains that saw prices climb roughly 7%.

Crude traded at about $81 a barrel after rising 7% in the sharpest three-day rally since April last year, while West Texas Intermediate was near $77.

“These gains were fuelled by expectations of interest rate cuts in the US, which became the dominant market narrative after the Federal Reserve Chairman signalled an easing off of the monetary policy brakes, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has warned that the upcoming autumn budget is “going to be painful”, indicating that the Labour government will raise taxes in October as it aims to to plug the £22bn black hole left by the Tories.

Speaking in the Rose Garden in 10 Downing Street this morning, his first major speech as prime minister, he warned that he would have to make “big asks” of the public.

“We have no other choice, given the situation that we’re in. Those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden, and that’s why we’re cracking down on non-doms," he said.

He added: “In relation to working people, income tax, national insurance, VAT, we will not increase tax. “I say again what I said before the election, we have to get away from the idea that the only levers are more tax and more spending."

However, the UK leader stressed that the government will focus on growing the economy, fixing the transport system and the NHS.

“This is our country, let’s fix it together," he concluded.

Starmer added that economic growth and wealth creation was the “number one priority of this Labour government” amid planning reforms and the establishment of Great British Energy.

He also cited the public sector pay deals which have brought to an end prolonged strike action.

“We have done more in seven weeks than the last government did in seven years,” he said.

It came as chancellor Rachel Reeves said last month that the UK should expect tax rises in October. She told the News Agents podcast: “I think that we will have to increase taxes in the Budget.”

She will receive the OBR’s initial assessment of the state of the economy early next month.

Miner BHP (BHP) is set to boost copper production after its mainstay iron ore business suffers from China’s economic slowdown.

The FTSE 100 group said it expects Chinese steel demand to remain depressed in 2024.

Consumption of iron ore has been hammered by a slowdown in China, where fewer buildings are being constructed, dampening demand for steelmaking iron ore. Almost two-thirds of BHP’s revenues come from iron ore, with under one-third coming from copper.

BHP chief executive Mike Henry said: “In the near term, we expect volatility in global commodity markets, with China experiencing an uneven recovery among its end-use sectors. The effectiveness of recently announced pro‑growth policies will be an important contributor for the country to achieve its official 5% growth target.”

BHP’s revenue for the year ending in June rose 3% to $55.7bn, while underlying net profit grew 2% to $13.7bn.

However, its total profit attributable to shareholders fell 39% after a $2.7bn write down in the value of its Australian nickel operations, and a $3.8bn charge related to a dam collapse in Brazil.

The firm also cut its full-year dividend by 14% to $1.46 to reflect higher investment in new projects.

Canada has revealed that it will impose a 100% tariff on imports of China-made electric vehicles (EV) after similar announcements by the US and European Union (EU).

It added that it will also impose a 25% duty on Chinese steel and aluminium after accusing China of subsidising its EV industry, giving its carmakers an unfair advantage.

China has called the move "trade protectionism" which "violates World Trade Organization rules".

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said:

Canada's duties on Chinese EVs are due to come into effect on 1 October, while those on steel and aluminium will be implemented from 15 October.

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to beat previous results when it publishes earnings on Wednesday.

For the quarter, the chipmaker is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.65 on revenue of $28.7bn. That works out to a 139% jump in EPS and a 113% increase in revenue compared to the same period a year ago when Nvidia saw EPS of $0.27 and revenue of $13.5bn.

Nvidia is the world leader in AI chip design and software, controlling between 80% and 95% of the market, according to Reuters. And it’s expected to continue to hold that lead as it begins rolling out its next-generation Blackwell line of chips.

The most anticipated results of the quarter will send ripple effects throughout the tech sector as investors look for signs that the AI trade will continue to dominate market conversations into the second half of the year.

Nvidia stock is up more than 163% year to date and 60% in the last six months. Rival AMD’s (AMD) stock price is up 9% year to date and down some 14% over the last six months.

Nigel Green of deVere Group said:

• More than three quarters of students worried about cost of university life, a new poll from Nationwide shows

• Average monthly income of £752.20 dwarfed by expected living costs of £2,197 — a threefold increase

• Over half of students are set to start university in debt — one in four more than £1,500 in the red

Tom Riley, Nationwide’s director of retail products, said:

Germany's economy contracted in second quarter, falling by 0.1%, confirming the previous estimate, Destatis, the federal statistics office, said.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 was also up 0.2% on the previous quarter, unrevised from the last reading.

Ruth Brand, Destatis’s president, said:

Meanwhile, Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING, said:

Europe's largest economy has narrowly avoided a technical recession for a year and a half, alternating between a contracting economy followed by expansion. Two consecutive quarters of contraction is one commonly used definition of recession.

Meanwhile job concerns weighed on German consumer sentiment. GfK’s closely followed index fell to -22 points for September, down from a slightly revised -18.6 the month prior. This was below a forecast by economists polled by Reuters for -18.2.

Shop prices were in deflation in August for the first time in nearly three years, according to new data, driven down by retailers slashing the prices of summer stock to shift inventory.

The British Retail Consortium-NIELSENIQ shop price index showed prices fell 0.3% in August, down from inflation of 0.2% in the previous month. This is below the three-month average rate of 0.0%. Shop price annual growth remained at its lowest rate since October 2021.

Non-food items led the deflationary charge, falling 1.5% in August, further down from -0.9% in the preceding month. This is below the three-month average rate of -1.1%. Inflation is at its lowest rate since July 2021.

Food inflation slowed to 2% in August, down from 2.3% in July. This is below the three-month average rate of 2.%. The annual rate continues to ease for food items, and inflation is at its lowest rate since November 2021.

Fresh food inflation slowed further in August, to 1%, down from 1.4% in July. This is below the three-month average rate of 1.3%. Inflation is its lowest rate since October 2021.

Asian shares mostly moved higher overnight after tech giants dragged down Wall Street last night.

The Nikkei (^N225) rose 0.5% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.4% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.2% down by the end of the session.

In China, the government urged Canada to immediately correct the “wrong practices” of new tariffs against the Asian nation.

Canada, an export-driven economy that relies heavily on trade with the US, has been closely watching moves by the Biden administration to erect a much higher tariff wall against Chinese EVs, batteries, solar cells, steel and other products.

Geopolitical risks kept early currency moves subdued, though fears of an escalating conflict following Israel and Hezbollah’s major missile exchange over the weekend petered out.

The yen was last 0.2% lower at 144.82 per dollar, giving up some of its safe haven gains from the previous session which saw it rise to a three-week high of 143.45 per dollar.

Across the pond, focus shifted from the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook to Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings later this week.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 0.3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.85% lower. The Dow Jones (^DJI) managed to eke out a gain of 0.1%.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and what's happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today...

• 7am: Trading updates: Faron Pharmaceuticals, Electrica Regs

• 11am: UK Confederation of British Industry distributive trades index

• 2pm: US S&P/Case-Shiller home price index

• 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales

• 3pm: US Consumer Confidence