In This Article:
Shareholders might have noticed that Fortuna Mining Corp. (TSE:FVI) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to CA$7.93 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$290m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 17% to hit US$0.20 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Fortuna Mining's three analysts is for revenues of US$935.2m in 2025, which would reflect a considerable 19% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 16% to US$0.45 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.78 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.
View our latest analysis for Fortuna Mining
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$9.16, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Fortuna Mining's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Fortuna Mining analyst has a price target of CA$10.08 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$7.02. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 27% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Fortuna Mining is expected to lag the wider industry.