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Talking Points:

• USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat

• Support: 102.77-94 (76.4% Fib exp., trend line), 101.38 (Feb 17 low)

• Resistance:103.26 (100% Fib exp.), 103.75 (123.6% Fib exp.)

The US Dollar is struggling to build significant upward momentum against the Japanese Yen after prices cleared resistance at a falling trend line set from late December. A Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 103.26, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, points to indecision and hints at a move lower may be ahead. A turn back below the trend line (now at 102.89) and the 76.4% Fib at 102.77 aims for the February 17 low at 101.38. Alternatively a break above resistance at 103.26, the 100% expansion, exposes the 123.6% level at 103.75.

A Shooting Star by itself is not sufficient to enter short without confirmation. With that in mind, we will continue to monitor price action from the sidelines for the time being.

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Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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