Talking Points
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Euro May Decline if Soft Flash CPI Print Boosts ECB Stimulus Expectations
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Dollar Looks to Read US News-Flow in Terms of Fed QE “Taper” Outlook
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Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Appetite Recovery
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Augusts’ preliminary Eurozone CPI figure headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year inflation rate to slow to 1.4 percent, the lowest in three months. The Euro continues to track relative monetary policy expectations (as implied by the EU-US 2 year bond yield spread). With that in mind, a soft print may be seen as amplifying the case for additional ECB stimulus and weigh on the single currency.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US data docket. July’s Personal Income and Spending metrics as well as Augusts’ Chicago PMI and revised University of Michigan Consumer Confidence releases are on tap.The resultsare likely to be interpreted in terms of its implications for the Fed’s move to “taper” QE asset purchases.With that in mind, a strong showing stands to boost the US Dollar while disappointing results will probably produce the opposite result.
The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as S&P 500 futures advanced, pointing to firming risk appetite. The Japanese Yen likewise rose as the Nikkei 225 benchmark stock index declined, dragged downward by energy and basic materials sectors. The news-wires chalked up the move to receding fears of an imminent Western intervention in the Syria.
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Asia Session:
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
| 23:05 | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey | -13 | -14 | -16 | |
| 23:15 | Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (AUG) | 52.2 | - | 50.7 | |
| 23:30 | JPY | Household Spending (YoY) (JUL) | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Jobless Rate (JUL) | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Job-To-Applicant Ratio | 0.94 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI (YoY) (JUL) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production (YoY) | 1.6% | 1.8% | -4.6% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production (MoM) | 3.2% | 3.6% | -3.1% |
| 1:30 | Private Sector Credit (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | |
| 1:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit (MoM) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 1:45 | CNY | MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator | 58.0 | - | 53.4 |
| 3:00 | Money Supply M3 (YoY) | 4.9% | - | 6.2% | |
| 4:00 | JPY | Vehicle Production (YoY) | -1.5% | - | -10.0% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Annualized Housing Starts | 0.975M | 0.994M | 0.976M |
| 5:00 | JPY | Housing Starts (YoY) | 12.0% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Construction Orders (YoY) | 13.7% | - | 21.9% |
Euro Session: