Talking Points:
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Australian Dollar Soft on Dovish RBA, Profit-Taking in Asian Trade
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Quiet European Data Docket Unlikely to Drive FX Market Volatility
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Euro, Franc and Kiwi Dollar May Rise on Corrective Profit-Taking
The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency began the session in corrective having scored impressive gains yesterday following better-than-expected employment figures. The decline was amplified by the release of a dovish-sounding RBA Monetary Policy Statement. The central bank lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts and poured cold water on interest rate hike bets, saying accommodative policy is likely to be appropriate “for some time”.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. UK Industrial Production figures are expected to show output fell for the first time in four months in March but the outcome is unlikely to mean much for the British Pound beyond reinforcing the amply priced-in standstill on the BOE policy front. Meanwhile, the German Trade Balance report will probably pass with little fanfare as traders’ top concern remains the possibility of ECB intervention following yesterday’s ominous policy announcement.
The US data docket is likewise thin, opening the door for a consolidative tone into the final hours of the trading week. That may produce a round of corrective profit-taking as markets digest the latest burst of volatility. The Aussie and the Japanese Yen may find themselves on the defensive in such a scenario, while the previously beleaguered Euro, Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar squeeze out a bit of upside momentum.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
| 22:45 | NZD | Card Spending Retail (MoM) (APR) | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| 22:45 | NZD | Card Spending Total (MoM) (APR) | -0.4% | - | -0.2% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Official Reserve Assets (APR) | $1282.8B | - | $1279.3B |
| 1:30 | CNY | PPI (YoY) (APR) | -2.0% | -1.9% | -2.3% |
| 1:30 | CNY | CPI (YoY) (APR) | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| 1:30 | AUD | RBA Statement on Monetary Policy | - | - | - |
| 5:00 | JPY | Leading Index (MAR P) | 106.7 | 108.9 | |
| 5:00 | JPY | Coincident Index (MAR P) | 114.0 | 113.0 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance (€) (MAR) | 17.4B | 16.3B | Medium |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Current Account (€) (MAR) | 14.9B | 13.9B | Medium |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAR) | 1.3% | -1.4% | Low |
| 6:00 | EUR | German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAR) | 0.6% | 0.4% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR) | 0.3% | 1.0% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAR) | 2.9% | 3.8% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR) | -0.2% | 0.9% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR) | 2.4% | 2.7% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR) | 0.6% | -2.8% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (MAR) | 7.1% | 2.8% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | Visible Trade Balance (£) (MAR) | -9000M | -9094M | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | Trade Balance - Non EU (£) (MAR) | -3000M | -2919M | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | Total Trade Balance (£) (MAR) | -2000M | -2058M | Low |
Critical Levels