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Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark

Ilya Spivak

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar turned lower from a six-month high as expected while the S&P 500 finally punched through the closely-watched 1500 figure.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (10181) and a rising channel top (10196). Sellers have now cleared the 50% level at 10153, exposing the 38.2% Fib at 10124. A further push beneath that aims for a rising trend line 10106. The 10153 mark has been recast as near-term resistance.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark
Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_4.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support is in the 1470.80-74.90 area, marked by the September 14 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below that targets the 38.2% level at 1446.20. Near-term resistance is at 1510.60, the January 30 high.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark
Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pushed higher as expected after completing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern above major rising trend line support dating back to mid-May (1653.31). Near-term resistance is at 1690.39, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the 1700/oz figure and a channel top at 1700.68. Alternatively, a reversal below support targets the January 4 low at 1625.69 and the falling channel bottom at 1602.09.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark
Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing through resistance at 97.41, a former range top, with a break above that exposing the September 14 high at 100.40. Near-term support is at 96.54, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, and a rising trend line set from mid-December (96.32). A break below that targets the 94.15-61 area.

Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark
Forex_Analysis_US_Dollar_Selling_Pauses_as_SP_500_Warns_of_Weakness_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: US Dollar Reverses Lower as S&P 500 Tops 1500 Mark

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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