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While Smurfit Westrock Plc (NYSE:SW) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 18% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 50%, less than the market return of 107%.
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Smurfit Westrock's earnings per share are down 23% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price. The revenue growth of about 10% per year might also encourage buyers.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Smurfit Westrock is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Smurfit Westrock's TSR for the last 5 years was 53%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Smurfit Westrock shareholders are down 3.4% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.2%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 9% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Smurfit Westrock has 6 warning signs (and 2 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.