It's been a sad week for FirstCash Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCFS), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$115 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$836m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.35. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for FirstCash Holdings

After the latest results, the four analysts covering FirstCash Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$3.44b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 16% to US$5.93. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.12 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$139, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic FirstCash Holdings analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$125. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting FirstCash Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that FirstCash Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that FirstCash Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for FirstCash Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for FirstCash Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for FirstCash Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.