First Mover Asia: Does Crypto’s Success Depend on the Upcoming Presidential Election?

In This Article:

Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Prices: The post-debt ceiling rally in the crypto market has ended, with bitcoin and ether declining in East Asia. What's the next narrative for crypto?

Insights: The latest Commitment of Traders reports shows a rebound in open long positions among asset managers.

Prices

CoinDesk Market Index (CMI)

1,197

−11.5 1.0%

Bitcoin (BTC)

$27,746

−354.3 1.3%

Ethereum (ETH)

$1,893

−21.0 1.1%

S&P 500

4,205.45

+54.2 1.3%

Gold

$1,960

+15.9 0.8%

Nikkei 225

31,233.54

+317.2 1.0%

BTC/ETH prices per CoinDesk Indices, as of 7 a.m. ET (11 a.m. UTC)

CoinDesk Market Index (CMI)

1,197

−11.5 1.0%

Bitcoin (BTC)

$27,746

−354.3 1.3%

Ethereum (ETH)

$1,893

−21.0 1.1%

S&P 500

4,205.45

+54.2 1.3%

Gold

$1,960

+15.9 0.8%

Nikkei 225

31,233.54

+317.2 1.0%

BTC/ETH prices per CoinDesk Indices, as of 7 a.m. ET (11 a.m. UTC)

Looking for the Next Pricing Narrative

By Sam Reynolds

Good morning Asia,

Yesterday’s post-debt ceiling deal rally has come to an end.

Bitcoin is beginning East Asia’s trading day down 1.3% at $27,746 while ether is down 1.1% to $1,893.

In the last few weeks, crypto has struggled with a narrative problem. The absence of a defining narrative – is it a risk asset, or a hedge against risk? – has made for patternless price swings and confused investors.

Some might say, for instance, that bitcoin should have risen on debt ceiling uncertainty, as a U.S. default would have jolted the traditional financial system. But instead, bitcoin acted like a stock. Perhaps crypto’s narrative is no narrative at all.

Ed Moya, a Senior Market Analyst with foreign exchange market maker OANDA, posits that the upcoming U.S. election is the narrative to watch.

“We were reminded that the key to Bitcoin’s success in the US might depend on the upcoming presidential election," Moya wrote in a note Friday. "Florida governor Ron Desantis announced his intentions to run for president and appears poised to ‘protect’ Bitcoin.”

With Central Bank Digital Currencies being a new wedge issue in Florida’s political landscape, the national stage is the next logical step. Crypto has come up in elections worldwide, such as South Korea and Thailand, and President Joe Biden mentioned it when discussing debt deal negotiations.

Maybe this will be the narrative to watch?

Biggest Gainers

Asset

Ticker

Returns

DACS Sector

XRP

XRP

+2.3%

Currency

Stellar

XLM

+0.6%

Smart Contract Platform

Biggest Losers

Asset

Ticker

Returns

DACS Sector

Gala

GALA

−4.0%

Entertainment

Polygon

MATIC

−3.5%

Smart Contract Platform

Avalanche

AVAX

−3.1%

Smart Contract Platform

Insights

Funding Rates Remain Positive in Crypto Markets

By Glenn Williams Jr.

The Commitment of Traders report shows that asset managers have increased their open long positions in bitcoin after falling in the two prior weeks. The 24-contract increase follows a reduction of 162 contracts the week prior.