Finding Breakout Trades in Current Market Conditions

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Talking Points:

  • Increased Volatility is good for breakout trading

  • Donchian Channels can find breakout trade entries

  • Sentiment can strengthen our Donchian Channel signals

We’ve seen an uptick in volatility the past couple of weeks across the board. This has led to some exciting opportunities for breakout traders as they take advantage of larger than normal price moves. One mistake that traders often make is ignoring the conditions of the market they are trading. They might be trading an excellent strategy, but if market conditions do not match up with the strategy’s style, traders might not like the results that they see.

Finding Breakout Trades in Current Market Conditions
Finding Breakout Trades in Current Market Conditions

(Copied from Weekly Strategy Outlook 9/22/2014)

David Rodriguez’s Weekly Outlook explains how much volatility has risen lately and how most pairs are ripe for breakout trading. So today we will look at a breakout strategy that has been a staple in my own account for years, Donchian with a Sentiment filter.

Download & Setup Donchian Channels

Donchian channels are not available on FXCM’s Trading Station Desktop by default. We must download and install this tool from FXCMApps.com. Follow the instructions below to get this tool available on your own charts at home.

  • Go to the Donchian Channel download page, select purchase (it’s free).

  • Input your information and download the file.

  • Unzip the file and double click on the .exe file that’s inside.

  • Complete the installation steps and close/re-open Trading Station Desktop.

Now that we’ve installed the indicator on our platform, we need to add it to our charts with the proper settings. Click the “Add Indicator” button above the charts (or click the “I” key on your keyboard). Select the Donchian Channel from the indicator list and click OK. We next want to adjust the settings to match the image below. Click OK.

Learn Forex: Preferred Donchian Channel Settings

Finding Breakout Trades in Current Market Conditions
Finding Breakout Trades in Current Market Conditions

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 charting package)

We should now see the Donchian Channels on our chart. It should appear as a price channel that adjusts to the high and low of the last 24 candles. Now we are ready to look for trade setups.

Finding Breakout Trades Using Donchian Channels

My preferred time frame for this strategy is a 1-hour chart. Once we are setup, it is very easy to identify breakouts. We simply need to wait until the current candle closes outside the Donchian Channel and then place a trade in the same direction. So when we have a candle that moves and closes above the upper line, we would initiate a buy trade. When a candle moves and closes below the lower line, we initiate a sell trade. The chart below shows a textbook example of a breakout sell trade.