Financial markets are giving up on the Trump Trade after health bill 'big failure'

Financial markets are giving up on the Trump Trade after health bill 'big failure' · CNBC

The Senate's failure to replace Obamacare raises new worries for markets that Washington dysfunction will prevent the Trump administration from driving through other aspects of its agenda — most importantly tax reform.

The dollar fell and Treasury yields slid, after two senators signaled late Monday that they could not support the revised bill, and in essence, declaring it dead. The dollar selling continued Tuesday and buyers moved into bonds and out of stocks in a safety play.

The Dow (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) was down more than 100 points at one point, in part because of Washington but also because of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS)' earnings issues. The Nasdaq (NASDAQ: .IXIC) held a tiny gain, as investors continued to seek growth in some tech names.

"The dollar is under pressure, but it's not a wholesale sell-off of U.S. assets. What would be scarier would be if stocks were selling off, and bonds were selling off and the dollar was selling off. Bonds aren't selling off," said Marc Chandler, head of fixed income strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

But the move in yields was significant. Wells Fargo director of rate strategy Michael Schumacher pointed out that the 10-year yield had been as high as 2.63 percent on enthusiasm about Trump's program and on Tuesday, it was as low as 2.25 percent.

"I think people are looking at the remnants of the Trump trade and saying, this is a pretty big failure, and therefore they're knocking out a decent portion of it," he said. "This represents a pretty big move back."

The path forward is now unclear. Schumacher said whichever direction Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell takes to address the issues of health care, the budget, debt ceiling and tax reform, Wells Fargo continues to expect some sort of tax reform plan this year.

The Senate was to vote on a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare this week, but now the Senate could take a vote on just repealing Obamacare, leaving a two-year time frame to come up with a new replacement. That bill does not seem like it would have much support either .

"It has affected the [stock] market. There's no doubt about it, in that there's a question as to whether or not they can proceed with tax reform," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist with Prudential Financial. "There are questions about whether or not there is leadership behind the legislation, and the Republican Party can actually move with its own party . … I think today the market is saying: 'What are you going to do? You have control of both Houses. You talked about this for years, and you had a president who said it would be at the top of his agenda.'"