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On average, over time, stock markets tend to rise higher. This makes investing attractive. But not every stock you buy will perform as well as the overall market. For example, the Financial Institutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:FISI), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 21% trails the market return. Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 19% in the last three years.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Financial Institutions
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over the last twelve months, Financial Institutions actually shrank its EPS by 3.6%.
Sometimes companies will sacrifice EPS in the short term for longer term gains; and in that case we may be able to find other positives. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the Financial Institutions' share price. It seems far more likely that the 9.2% boost to the revenue over the last year, is making the difference. Revenue growth often does precede earnings growth, so some investors might be willing to forgo profits today because they have their eyes fixed firmly on the future.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Financial Institutions will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Financial Institutions' TSR for the last 1 year was 28%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.