A week ago, FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenue crushed expectations at US$51m, beating expectations by 46%. FibroGen reported a statutory loss of US$0.16 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for FibroGen

Following last week's earnings report, FibroGen's dual analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$174.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 45% to US$0.92. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$153.5m and losses of US$1.29 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

The consensus price target fell 66%, to US$0.60, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2024. Historically, FibroGen's top line has shrunk approximately 13% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. Although FibroGen's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.