Fed’s Logan supports 'gradual' rate reductions following initial cut

Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said Wednesday she backed the Fed’s decision to slash interest rates by a half percentage point in September, but that she would support lowering rates more gradually as the central bank moves forward.

"A more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals," Logan said in a speech in Houston.

Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

Gradually lowering rates to a level that neither boosts nor slows economic growth can help manage risks, she said. While the economy is “strong and stable,” downside risks to the job market have increased, she added.

“As the labor market has cooled, we face more risk that it will cool beyond what is needed to sustainably return inflation to 2% or that the employment situation may even deteriorate abruptly,” said Logan.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at a conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Dallas, Texas, U.S., October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan speaks at a conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Dallas last year. (REUTERS/Ann Saphir) (REUTERS / Reuters)

Logan joins other Fed officials who appear to want to move at a more measured pace.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear on Sept. 30 that the central bank isn’t in a "hurry" to bring interest rates down and would prefer smaller cuts.

He also reiterated that the consensus of Fed officials outlined at the September meeting was for two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, saying "it wouldn't mean more fifties."

Other officials — including New York Fed president John Williams, St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, and Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee — all favor bringing interest rates lower "over time."

They don't appear to be wavering from a consensus among Fed officials outlined at their September meeting for two more gradual 25 basis point rate cuts this year followed by four smaller cuts next year. However, volatile data could change that course.

A hotter-than-expected September jobs report released last week caused investors to pull back on bets for more aggressive rate cuts this year. The odds of a smaller 25 basis point cut at the Fed's next meeting in November are now nearly 90%.

Boston Fed president Susan Collins said this week that recent data, including September’s unexpectedly strong jobs report, strengthens her assessment that the job market remains in a good place overall — neither too hot nor too cold. She echoed Powell's caution that the Fed does not want to see further cooling in the job market.

Officials, including Williams and Goolsbee, have said they don’t want to overemphasize one month of strong jobs data and aren’t changing their outlook for policy now.

“I don’t want to see the economy weaken,” Williams told the Financial Times. “I want to maintain the strength that we see in the economy and in the labor market. I think the recalibration of policy sets us up really nicely to achieve both of those goals.”

Logan in her speech Wednesday said inflation has come down, but there are still real upside risks. She is watching for any fallout from recent port strikes and the conflict in the Middle East that could push up inflation.

The recent three-day work stoppage at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports isn’t likely to leave a lasting mark on supply chains, she said, but she underscored that risks remain, since workers and port operators have agreed to revisit their contract in January.

“Any number of shocks could influence what that path to normal will look like, how fast policy should move, and where rates should settle,” said Logan. “The FOMC will need to remain nimble and willing to adjust if appropriate.”

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