Fed 'behind the curve'-right where it wants to be
Fed 'behind the curve'-right where it wants to be

For Federal Reserve critics, lobbing the "behind the curve" charge has become the easiest to way to blast the central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy.

Inside the Fed, though, the charge has become something just short of a badge of honor, an indication that officials there are willing to tolerate being slow to move on interest rates as long as it boosts workers' economic conditions.

The "curve" charge itself has a sharp implication, namely that Chair Janet Yellen and her cohorts are ignoring mounting inflation pressures and ultimately will have their hand forced by an economy growing more rapidly than they give it credit. Moreover, the implication goes straight to the Fed's competence and whether it really is a capable steward or an overzealous money printer too willing to prop up bubbles.

Nonsense, said Pimco's Paul McCulley, who serves as the bond giant's chief economist and, suddenly, as a vocal defender of the central bank's policies.

In a report issued for clients earlier in the week, McCulley said "behind the curve" is exactly where the Fed wants to be-for now. The goal is to keep interest rates low not until unemployment falls below 6 percent or inflation eclipses 2 percent-the previously stated goals from the Open Market Committee for when it would begin to consider raising rates-but until consumer buying power gets considerably stronger.

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"Bluntly put: Chair Yellen wants labor to get a fairer share of the fruits of the economy's productivity: nominal wage gains greater than inflation-real wage gains," McCulley wrote.

The Pimco executive dismissed bond vigilantes and inflation hawks as "nattering nabobs" while categorically saying that keeping short-term rates near zero "has worked...because it was the right macroeconomic thing to do."

Going forward, he expects the Fed to treat 2 percent inflation, and in particular wage-generated inflation, as a positive, which it will tolerate for even longer than its detractors expect. McCulley uses something called "Rich's Ratio," formulated by his colleague Rich Clarida, that asserts it's only in the later stages of economic expansions that labor sees real income gains compared to prices.

"The Fed has no interest whatsoever in listening to calls from Wall Street to view accelerating wages as a problem that needs to be solved," he said. "Rather, it is a delight to be celebrated. The Fed would love to see a long bull market in Rich's Ratio. The war on inflation was won long ago, and the time has come for a peace dividend paid to labor."


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