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“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” – Yale Hirsch
It’s been a sluggish start to December with the S&P 500 down about 1% on the month as of early Tuesday morning.
On a positive note, the days surrounding the Christmas holiday have historically been some of the most bullish times of the year. Dating back to 1988, the second day before Christmas (which fell on yesterday this year) is the most bullish, with the S&P 500 rising more than 70% of the time over the past 36 years. That trend played out again yesterday as the S&P 500 rose 0.73%, recovering most of the nasty mid-December sell-off in the process.
Today marks the final trading day before Christmas and is also the first day of a period known as the Santa Claus Rally (SCR).
The Santa Claus Rally
First discovered by Yale Hirsch (creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac), the SCR is a seven-day period that consists of the final five trading days of the year, along with the first two trading days of the New Year. As markets are closed on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday, today marks the first day.
Since 1950, these 7 glorious days tend to be overwhelmingly green, as the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 1.3% and is positive nearly 80% of the time. In fact, no other 7 days of the year are more likely to finish higher! While the period failed to close positive last year, the SCR had been higher in each of the prior 7 years.
If these 7 days are higher, it typically bodes well for the full year. In fact, since 1950, when we have a positive SCR, the S&P 500 gains an average of 10.2% the following year and is higher 72.4% of the time.
Stocks to Watch
The technology sector is attempting a breakout here after a minor pullback. Semiconductor stocks in particular are once again showing strength. Shares of Astera Labs ALAB are hitting all-time highs on Christmas Eve, outperforming the major indexes. The provider of semiconductor-based solutions is taking full advantage of the artificial intelligence theme. ALAB stock has soared nearly 300% since its March IPO.
Image Source: StockCharts
Intelligence and AI play Palantir PLTR is another stock hitting all-time highs on Tuesday morning. A Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, Palantir has soared on the heels of a bevy of brokerage upgrades and renewed government contracts. PLTR stock is up more than 380% heading into the final week of the year.
Image Source: StockCharts
Looking at the ‘Mag 7’ stocks, one stood out on Tuesday as tech giant Apple AAPL also hit a fresh all-time high. The big story this year has been the rise of Apple Intelligence, the company’s personal intelligence system that uses generative AI models to help with everyday tasks. After a relatively weak start to the year, AAPL stock has come on strong lately and is up better than 30% in 2024.