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Facebook stock is on pace to have its best month since July 2013, after the social media titan reported Q4 earnings that blew out Wall Street and investors’ expectations.
The company has been entangled in a sticky web of data privacy scandals and misinformation woes, but somehow managed to deliver surprisingly strong user numbers and also grew ad revenue across its platforms.
As market watchers’ digest the financial results and attempt to understand the future trajectory of the company, here’s how Wall Street is breaking down the Facebook narrative in six simple points.
1. Users are sticking with Facebook
“The users are still there: 2.7b [monthly active users] and 2b [daily active users]. In other words, 26% of all humans on planet Earth use a Facebook property every day. Despite the horrific headlines over the past year, users are sticking with Facebook. This tells us that a significant percentage of humans find value in Facebook,” Benjamin Schachter, an analyst at Macquarie, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
“[A]s long as the users are there, Facebook can find ways to monetize. As long as Facebook continues to provide utility for users, we think it will continue to attract advertising dollars. Importantly, mgmt.’s tone is much less defensive, as it shifts to articulating a story of growth and utility while investing in security. Communicating with more transparency is a [management] focus area for ’19. We think that is a good thing.”
2. From crisis management to innovation
“The most important takeaway was the more offensive stance toward product development and revenue-generating initiatives vs managing security/content issues,” Stephen Ju, a Credit Suisse analyst, wrote in a note on Thursday.
“Facebook management delivered a cogent review of the issues it faces and has a sound strategy to address those, in our view, based on greater content scrutiny, groups, ephemeral posting, and encryption,” Andy Hargreaves, a KeyBanc analyst, said on Wednesday. “If it executes against these, we believe it could significantly improve both public and investor perception of the platform, which could drive multiple expansion.”
3. Risks are still prevalent
“We feel we could be in a period of sustained re-rating as the worst FB fears appear not to have been realized,” Mark Mahaney, an RBC analyst, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.
“CFO Dave Wehner indicated that the broader privacy landscape could impact targeting/attribution capabilities for certain campaigns (pricing headwind), in addition to a potential global macro slowdown impacting ad budgets(although FB/IG budgets would likely be among last to be curtailed given high ROI),” Colin Sebastian, an analysts for Baird, said on Wednesday.