We recently published a list of Top 12 Oil and Gas Stocks To Invest In According to Hedge Funds. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) stands against other oil and gas stocks to invest in according to hedge funds.
With a record average production of 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, the United States is the Biggest Oil Producing Country in the World. Every year, the indigenous production of oil and gas helps save American consumers an estimated $203 billion, or $2,500 for each family of four. Moreover, the oil and gas industry supports over 12 million American jobs, provides billions of dollars in tax revenue, and ensures energy security.
According to OPEC, the global oil demand increased by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023 to average 102.2 mb/d, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time. The major part of this uptick came from the non-OECD countries, which posted YoY growth of about 2.4 mb/d to average 56.4 mb/d, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the second consecutive year.
As per the IEA’s recent market outlook, growth in the global demand for oil is expected to slow down in the coming years as energy transitions advance. However, despite the sluggish growth, the world oil demand is still forecast to be 3.2 mb/d higher in 2030 than in 2023, unless stronger policy measures are implemented or changes in behavior take hold.
Future Outlook of the Global Oil Industry
As 2024 comes to a close, oil prices have moved in the narrowest range this year since 2019, with Brent crude oil prices exhibiting a minimal average monthly change and a monthly range-bound movement between $69 and $90. The general opinion is that a soft demand, coupled with an abundant supply, even on hold, has contributed to the relative stability we witnessed this year.
China’s faltering economy and its shift towards electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks weighed heavily on the crude oil demand this year. According to a recent report by the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation, the world’s largest oil-importing country may see its demand peak in 2025, five years earlier than expected, as the shift away from fossil fuels accelerates. The report reveals that China’s oil demand could reach 770 million tons next year, before gradually falling to 240 million tons by 2060.
As a consequence of the slowdown in the global oil demand, Brent futures prices have shed more than 5% so far this year, setting up a second consecutive annual loss. J.P. Morgan analysts have predicted that the global oil market is widely expected to be in a surplus in 2025, as supply will outpace demand to the tune of 1.2 million b/d. Brent crude prices are forecast to average around $73 a barrel next year, according to a Reuters tally of 11 brokerages that have issued price targets.
The bleak outlook has inevitably caused the oil and gas stocks to tumble and the broader market’s Energy sector has dropped by 13.42% over the last month, while the overall market has stayed relatively stable and lost only 0.3% during the same period.
However, despite the falling prices and decreasing margins, the oil and gas industry is contributing massively to the global economy and shareholder return. A recent report from Deloitte has revealed that the O&G sector distributed nearly $213 billion in dividends and $136 billion in buybacks between January 2024 and mid-November 2024. Also, over the last four years, the industry’s capital expenditures have increased by 53%, while its net profit has risen by nearly 16%. Moreover, an increasing number of oil majors are now investing in low-carbon technology projects to help balance the risks associated with the traditional fossil fuel market.
Methodology
To collect data for this article, we scanned Insider Monkey’s database of 900 hedge funds and picked the top 8 companies operating in the oil and gas sector with the highest number of hedge fund investors. When two or more companies had the same number of hedge funds investing in them, we ranked them by the revenue of their last financial year instead. Following are the Best Energy Stocks Held by the Most Hedge Funds.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Among Top Oil and Gas Stocks To Invest In According to Hedge Funds?
Aerial view of a major oil rig in the middle of the sea, pumping crude oil.
Topping our list of the Best Energy Stocks According to Hedge Funds is Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) – a multinational oil, gas, and chemicals company with an extensive portfolio of products including crude oil, for refining into petroleum derivates; natural gas; refined fuels, like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil; and motor oil and industrial lubricants. With operations in more than 60 countries around the globe, the oil major’s competitive edge stems from its diversified world-class asset portfolio.
In Q3 of 2023, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) reported revenue of $90.02 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates by $1.66 billion. The company also achieved an operating cash flow of $17.6 billion, with its free cash flow at $11.3 billion. Over three years, XOM’s stock boasts a remarkable performance compared to its peers and has given more than twice as much shareholder returns as the next big competitor.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) also returned $26.1 billion to its shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases in Q3, with plans to repurchase over $19 billion of shares by the end of the year. Moreover, the oil and gas giant offers a quarterly dividend of $0.99 per share, having raised it by 4% in November this year. Exxon has increased its annual dividend for 42 consecutive years, a claim that less than 4% of the S&P 500 companies can make, putting it on our list of Dividend Knights that Beat the Market Last 3 Years.
In May, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) announced the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in a massive $59.5 billion all-stock deal. The venture seems to be bearing fruit as the company has used it to offset the effect of the decline in average oil prices during the quarter, registering the first impact of the new asset.
Additionally, to ensure its smooth energy transition, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has secured the largest offshore carbon dioxide storage site in the US through an agreement with the Texas General Land Office. The 271,000-acre site complements the company’s onshore carbon storage portfolio and further solidifies it as the company of choice for carbon capture, transport, and storage across the American Gulf Coast.
86 hedge funds in the IM database held shares of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) at the end of Q3 2024, with a total stake value of over $6.9 billion, up 11.7% from the previous quarter.
Overall, XOM ranks 1st on our list of oil and gas stocks to invest in according to hedge funds. While we acknowledge the potential for XOM to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than XOM but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
