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It's been a good week for Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 7.0% to US$3.35. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$56m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 4.0% smaller than expected, with Exagen losing US$0.83 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Exagen
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Exagen's five analysts is for revenues of US$64.7m in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 34% to US$0.56. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$66.4m and losses of US$0.65 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, Exagen'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
There was no major change to the US$6.75average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Exagen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$8.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Exagen's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 20% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Exagen is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.