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Investors in Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.0% to close at AU$6.25 following the release of its half-year results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of AU$0.22 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of AU$2.0b came in 5.5% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Evolution Mining
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Evolution Mining from 17 analysts is for revenues of AU$4.04b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14% to AU$0.39. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$3.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.37 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of AU$5.45, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolution Mining at AU$7.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$3.30. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Evolution Mining's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Evolution Mining's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.