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Nvidia (NVDA) has been in a slump for weeks, reaching concerningly low levels. The artificial intelligence (AI) leader has battled extreme volatility over the past month but failed to generate sustainable momentum.
As of this writing, shares are down more than 12% for the month and 8% for the week. Despite the momentum generated by last week’s GTC (GPU Technology Conference) 2025, market momentum still seems to be working against NVDA and many of its big tech peers.
The future may appear uncertain right now, as ongoing pressure from tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China continues to push down entire sectors and prompt concern about a bear market.
However, a major announcement is coming soon, and it has the potential to significantly impact Nvidia and many of its peers, particularly those in the chipmaking space. The catalyst the industry needs may finally be in sight.
AI investors can mark their calendars for May 15
For the past few months, both investors and consumers have anxiously waited to learn more about how the Trump administration will handle AI policy. Vice President JD Vance has discussed it at multiple events but offered little direct context as to upcoming policies.
However, the White House is scheduled to release its so-called AI Diffusion Rule on May 15, described as a “regulatory framework that aims to control foreign countries' access to high-tech chips from the US.” It will provide investors with an in-depth look at what to expect regarding AI over the next few years.
Related: JD Vance offers jolting preview of U.S. AI policy
Whenever he discusses AI policy under Trump, Vance highlights the need for less regulation. Therefore, the AI Diffusion rule will likely mean fewer rules for companies to follow, including where AI chips can be sold.
Such a decision would be in stark contrast to the AI Diffusion Rule that former President Joe Biden implemented before leaving office in January 2025. It included severe curbs on AI chip exports and garnered significant backlash from companies in the space, including Nvidia.
Wall Street seems optimistic about what this new AI policy framework will mean for Nvidia. One Bank of America BAC strategist describes the date as “liberation day,” as it will likely be the growth-driving catalyst the company needs. Per Business Insider:
“The rules would impose restrictions on some sales of Nvidia's chips and potentially narrow its market, but the event could actually end up being positive for Nvidia stock. That's because the company could recover from its recent slump once wider geopolitical concerns are "sized and priced," the bank said on Thursday.”