FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatening new tariffs and political chaos engulfing France, the European Union's second largest economy, the question ahead of the European Central Bank meeting Thursday is not whether it will cut interest rates, but by how much.

Analysts see a quarter-point rate cut from the current ECB benchmark rate of 3.25% as the most likely option when the bank's rate-setting council meets at its skyscraper headquarters in Frankfurt.

But the prospect of a half-point cut isn’t out of the question for the bank and its President Christine Lagarde as new risks that emerged since the bank’s last meeting on Oct. 17 cast a shadow over an already tepid recovery from a post-pandemic stagnation.

Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5 heightened the prospect of a more protectionist U.S. trade policy, such as new or higher tariffs on imported goods, after he takes office on Jan. 20. That sends a cold chill through the business world in Europe, where exports are an outsized contributor to growth and employment.

Yet there are internal risks as well.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned Dec. 5 after losing a vote of confidence, leaving the France without a functioning government and no clear majority in parliament able or willing to tackle the country’s excessive budget deficit. Elections cannot be held before June. While the end of the Barnier government hasn't triggered a financial crisis, it adds uncertainty about how long it will take for France to right its finances.

A half-point cut “would be a security move to preempt any potential risks for the eurozone economy coming from the next U.S. administration’s potential economic policy choices and political woes in France and Germany,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at ING bank.

Opting for a quarter-point move “would rather follow the cautious meeting-by-meeting approach” that the bank has pursued since it started cutting rates in June, Brzeski said. One argument for a smaller rate cut might be a reluctance by the ECB to risk the perception that it is getting involved in French national politics: “This is speculation the ECB would clearly rather avoid,” Brzeski said.

Germany's governing coalition broke up in November, and a new national election is expected Feb. 23. Weeks of coalition negotiations are expected to follow before a new government is in place. That leaves the two biggest eurozone economies politically adrift for months.

All that has dinged the confidence that businesses need to borrow, invest, expand production and take risks. The survey index of purchasing managers compiled by S&P Global came in at 48.3 in November, with levels below 50 suggesting the economy is slowing. The Sentix survey of investor confidence fell in its first update after the U.S. election, by 4.6 points to minus 17.5.