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The risk of Russia cutting off natural gas may mean Europe doesn't ban Russian oil, Vortexa's chief economist said.
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Oil is a major source of money for Russia, while natural gas is its political weapon, said David Wech.
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Europe relies heavily on Russian energy, especially gas, and has paid the country billions for it since the Ukraine invasion.
Europe is under pressure to ban imports of Russian oil, despite its dependence, but doing so would raise the very real risk that Moscow would retaliate with a halt on natural gas exports that could plunge the entire region into recession, according to energy market intelligence provider Vortexa.
The European Union gets 30% of its crude oil from Russia. A ban would hurt, but it's not a matter of there being no alternatives, according to Vortexa's chief economist David Wech.
"I think the most important factor probably holding some European countries back from banning Russian crude imports is the concern that this will lead to a situation where also Russian gas is lost," he said in an interview with Insider this week.
Russia is a major producer of oil and gas and makes billions from its exports. The EU is its major customer, particularly for natural gas, which meets 40% of the entire region's needs, and in the case of some member states, close to 100% of demand.
"What is important to understand here as well is that Russia earns way more money with oil than with gas. So they will not hurt their oil income," Wech said. "They know that Europe is more dependent on gas, they know they have more power on that side."
"So the gas is the political power tool. The oil is the income tool," he said.
Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia has made over $66 billion from its energy imports. The EU has stumped up $46 billion to pay Moscow for fuel in that time, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Western countries have hit Russia with intense sanctions following the war, but the EU has not yet banned Russian oil and gas. Less dependent nations, such as the United States and Britain, have stopped Russian energy imports.
Russia has put measures of its own in place, such as demanding payment for natural gas in rubles from "hostile countries". Gas generally continued to flow uninterrupted through the pipelines that service Europe, until this week, when Russia announced it had turned off the gas taps to Poland and Bulgaria. European natural gas prices are
The infrastructure alone - a network of overground pipelines that run for thousands of miles through numerous countries - means it's a lot easier for Russia to cut gas to Europe than oil.