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Talking Points:

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat

• Break of Chart Resistance Hints Euro Poised to Extend Above 1.15 vs. US Dollar

• Standing Aside Until Short Trade Setup in Line with Long-Term Trend Emerges

The Euro continues to rise against the US Dollar as expected, with a break above chart resistance clearing the way for a move above the 1.15 figure. Prices have now completed five consecutive days of gains, making for the longest winning streak in a month.

From here, a daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1539 exposes the next upside barrier at 1.1646, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1432 – now recast as support – opens the door for a challenge of a horizontal pivot at 1.1265.

The dominant long-term EURUSD trend initiated in mid-2008 continues to favor the downside. With that in mind, we will opt not to pursue a long position, preferring to wait for the upswing to yield a selling opportunity in line with the larger decline instead. In the meantime, we are flat.

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