EUR/USD Price Forecast: ECB Central Bankers in Focus

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Bob Mason

Mon, Jul 4, 2022, 1:42 AM 2 min read

Exports fell by 0.5% to €125.8 billion, while imports increased by 2.7% to €126.7 billion
To the Russian Federation, exports surged by 29.4% after having tumbled between February and April.
Imports from the Russian Federation declined by 9.8% in the month.
Exports to EU countries fell by 2.8%, while imports from those countries increased by 2.5%.
To countries outside of the EU, exports increased by 2.3% and imports by 2.9%.
Significantly, exports to the US surged by 5.7%, while exports to the UK declined by 2.5%.

Later this morning, the Sentix economic index will likely influence the EUR/USD pair ahead of central bank chatter.

Following consumer price numbers last week, ECB members Elderson and De Guindos could provide further guidance on monetary policy later today.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.04270.

A mixed morning saw the EUR rise to an early morning high of $1.04443 before falling to a low of $1.04163.

The EUR/USD left the Major Support and Resistance Levels untested early on.

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD will need to avoid the $1.0426 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0486.

The EUR will need hawkish central bank chatter to support a move through the Friday high of $1.04854.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0546. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0666.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0366 in play.

Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, the EUR should avoid sub-$1.035 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0306. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0185.