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European exports could be hit with higher tariffs after talks between the EU and US failed to make progress.
Sources have told Bloomberg that Maros Sefcovic, the European trade commissioner, was left struggling to understand what the US government wants to achieve after he met with Howard Lutnick, the US commerce secretary, and Jamieson Greer, Mr Trump’s chief trade negotiator.
US officials have now suggested that the 20pc “reciprocal” tariffs that Donald Trump paused last week will not be removed completely. A 90-day pause means EU exports are currently subject to a 10pc levy.
The EU’s struggles contrast with suggestions from Mr Trump and his close allies that a trade deal with the UK could be easy to achieve. JD Vance, the US vice-president, told UnHerd that there is a “good chance” of Britain and the US agreeing a “great” deal.
He said: “There’s a real cultural affinity. And of course, fundamentally America is an Anglo country.
“I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries”.
Mr Trump has long been a vocal critic of the EU, accusing it of being “a foe” on trade and claiming that the bloc has “raped and pillaged” the United States.
On his “liberation day”, Mr Trump imposed 20pc tariffs on most imports from the EU, twice the percentage charged on the UK goods. But last week he backtracked after the trade war caused a global sell-off of US shares and put US bonds under pressure.
A US Trade Representative official told The Telegraph: “Numerous countries have been very responsive to the United States’ willingness to negotiate and talks are proceeding quickly.
“US officials have repeatedly communicated the President’s trade policy agenda to their European Union counterparts regarding the need to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers.”
The European Commission was approached for comment.
Read the latest updates below.
07:57 PM BST
Signing off...
Thanks for joining us today on this live blog.
Wall Street is slightly down this evening, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down by less than 0.1pc, while the Dow Jones is down by 0.2pc.
“The market is eerily calm,” investment strategist Louis Navellier told clients in a note. “It’s a bit unnerving after the roller-coaster ride we’ve been on since the tariff tantrum began.”
Darrell Cronk, president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said that the “final tariff menu remains unsettled” and will decide if there is a recession or not.
“We should expect volatility to remain high, but last week proved the power of markets to push the administration not to break the financial system,” he added. “Hence, we should have a floor for equities.”
06:59 PM BST
JP Morgan chief warns trade war could hurt US credibility
The boss of America’s largest bank has warned that Donald Trump’s trade war could damage America’s reputation, according to an interview with the Financial Times.
Jamie Dimon told the paper that the US is “a haven” in the global economy but said: “A lot of this uncertainty is challenging that a little bit. So you’re going to be reading about this non-stop until hopefully these tariffs and trade wars settle down and go away so people can say, I can rely on America.”
He argued the US and Chinese governments needed to engage in proper discussions sooner rather than later. He said “I don’t think there’s any engagement right now ... it doesn’t have to wait a year. It could start tomorrow.”
06:58 PM BST
White House: ‘The ball is in China’s court’
The White House has claimed that the next move in the trade war with China is up to Beijing.
Karoline Leavitt, Mr Trump’s press secretary, said: “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. There’s no difference between China and any other country except they are much larger and China wants what we have, what every country wants: the American consumer. Or, to put it another way, they need our money.
“So the president, again, has made it quite clear that he’s open to a deal with China but China needs to make a deal with the United States.”
06:48 PM BST
White House: we can announce trade deals soon
Donald Trump’s press secretary has said that new trade deals should be announced soon.
She said: “More than 75 countries have reached out.
“There’s a lot of work to do. We very much understand that. But we do believe that we can announce some deals very soon.”
06:47 PM BST
White House looking at 15 proposals for trade deals
The White House is actively looking at 15 trade deals, Mr Trump’s press secretary has said.
Karoline Leavitt said that Mr Trump’s team is working to “cut these good trade deals” but that the president himself “wants to personally sign off on all of these deals, too”.
She said: “There have been many talks with countries: we’ve had more than 15 deals, pieces of paper, put on the table - proposals that are actively being considered.”
06:31 PM BST
Carney offers carmakers tariff relief as Honda weighs move
Mark Carney has offered Canadian carmakers some relief from tariffs on condition they maintain production in Canada.
It comes after reports that Honda was considering moving assembly lines from Canada and Mexico to the United States.
Under the Canadian government plan, companies that continue to manufacture vehicles in Canada would be allowed to import a certain number of cars and trucks made in the United States tariff-free.
Canada has imposed a 25pc tariff on vehicle imports from the United States, in retaliation against President Donald Trump’s levies on cars and auto parts imported from Canada.
The Canadian tariffs applied to cars and light trucks that are not compliant with an existing North American free trade pact. Likewise, US auto tariffs provide some reprieve for compliance under the pact.
The tariff relief, the Canadian government said, was contingent “on automakers continuing to produce vehicles in Canada and on completing planned investments.”
05:43 PM BST
FTSE 100 closes strongly up as hopes rise over US-UK trade deal
The FTSE 100 has climbed higher as the index continues its recovery and hopes grow over a trade deal between the US and the UK.
The UK’s top index has had a run of gains after suffering sharp losses in the days following Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement, where it plummeted to its lowest level in a year.
It gained 1.4pc to close at 8,249.12.
It comes as US vice president JD Vance said the administration was “working very hard” to negotiate a “great” trade deal with the UK.
Mr Vance said the “reciprocal relationship” between the US and UK gave Britain a better position than other European countries when it comes to negotiating new trade arrangements.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Mr Trump said electronics such as smartphones and laptops would be exempt from tariffs - including the 145pc charge on imports from China.
European stocks were also rebounding as a more optimistic mood washed over global markets.
In Frankfurt, the Dax rose 1.4pc, and in Paris, the Cac 40 closed 0.9pc higher.
05:13 PM BST
Wall Street rises despite new Trump investigations
Wall Street has risen this afternoon, boosted by the possibility of more exemptions from Donald Trump’s tariffs and gains in financial stocks after encouraging results from Citigroup and Bank of America.
However, gains were capped by official US government filings that showed the Trump administration was also proceeding with probes into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, as part of a bid to impose tariffs on the sectors.
Many investors were also looking for buying opportunities after sharp declines over the past weeks, according to Paul Gray, managing partner of Ironhold Capital.
“Smart money, for the most part is putting money to work,” he said.
“But the stock market likes certainty and what we have now is a lot of uncertainty, which is why you’re seeing a lot of this volatility day to day.”
The S&P 50 is up 0.4pc, the Nasdaq is up 0.5pc and the Dow is up by 0.2pc.
05:00 PM BST
Xi visits Malaysia in bid to boost trade amid Trump trade war
Xi Jinping has arrived in Kuala Lumpur as the Chinese president seeks to boost ties with Malaysia amid a zig-zagging trade war with the US, writes Max Head.
The visit, his first in 12 years, comes after Donald Trump announced searing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia of between 24pc and 49pc.
In meetings with the Malaysian leader, Mr Xi is expected to discuss expanding trade with Southeast Asia, including a free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nation group (Asean), which Malaysia currently chairs.
Amid uncertainty about US tariffs, Xi is making the case for free trade, presenting China as a stable and reliable training partner. China’s foreign ministry said today that China plans to expand their “circle of friends in trade”.
President Xi’s Malaysia visit follows a visit to Vietnam, where leaders of both countries expressed support for global trade rules overseen by the World Trade Organisation. President Trump criticised the meeting, saying it was meant to “screw” the US. President Xi will visit Cambodia on Thursday.
04:39 PM BST
World markets rise after ‘temporary’ reprieve from tariffs
Stock markets are mostly up around the world, with the FTSE 100 and Germany’s Dax both jumping 1.4pc, and France’s Cac 40 up 0.9pc.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 has risen 0.3pc, while the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones are up 0.2pc.
It followed rises in Asian markets earlier, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 adding 0.8pc.
Stephen Innes, of SPI Asset Management, said: “The market isn’t reacting to peace ... We’re not in “risk-on” nirvana - we’re in reprieve mode.
“It’s temporary, it’s tactical, and it’s tradable. If Japan gets the golden handshake [with an early trade deal], expect a rush of copycats. If they get stonewalled, the next stop is risk-off roulette.”
04:26 PM BST
Trump says China ‘reneged’ on Boeing deal as tensions flare
Donald Trump has accused China of going back on a major Boeing deal, after a report that Beijing had ordered airlines not to take further deliveries of the US aviation giant’s jets.
“Interestingly, they just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will ‘not take possession’ of fully committed to aircraft,” the US president said, referring to China as trade tensions flared between the world’s two biggest economies.
Although Mr Trump has slapped new tariffs around the world since returning to the presidency this year, he reserved his heaviest blows for China - imposing additional 145pc tariffs on many Chinese imports.
Mr Trump also claimed that China did not fully fulfil a trade deal that marked a truce in both sides’ escalating tariffs war during his first term.
04:12 PM BST
Mexico denies inflicting unfairly cheap tomatoes in US
Mexico has denied that its farmers are dumping tomatoes in the United States and said it would seek talks to avoid duties announced by Washington.
The US Department of Commerce said yesterday that it would terminate a 2019 agreement that had “failed to protect US tomato growers from unfairly priced” imports from Mexico.
“There is no dumping by Mexican tomato producers,” President Claudia Sheinbaum told a news conference, expressing optimism that duties would be avoided.
“Even if this sanction were to be applied, Mexican tomatoes would still be exported to the United States because there is no substitute. The main problem would be that tomatoes would be more expensive in the United States,” Ms Sheinbaum said.
Washington said that it would impose an anti-dumping duty order on July 14, resulting in duties of 20.9pc on most tomato imports from Mexico.
“We’re seeking dialogue,” Mexican agriculture minister Julio Berdegue said, calling antidumping investigations “common”.
In 2019, “Mexico defended itself, presented its arguments and reached the agreement that was in effect until now. What will likely happen is exactly the same thing,” he told reporters.
According to government figures, Mexico is a dominant supplier of fresh tomatoes to the United States.
04:05 PM BST
US tariffs risk killing off Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ ambitions
US tariffs could kill off Donald Trump’s ambitions to “drill, baby, drill” in the US, the International Energy Agency has warned.
The Paris-based agency said a plunge in oil prices had “rattled the US shale patch”, with firms arguing the need for $65 a barrel on average to profitably drill new light tight oil wells, according to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
Prices for Brent crude, the global benchmark, tumbled more than $15 a barrel to below $60 last week for the first time in four years, as traders reeled at the prospect of higher supplies from Opec+ countries and mounting recession fears.
The IEA, in its first forecast since “liberation day”, said: “New tariffs may also make it more expensive to buy steel and equipment, further discouraging drilling.
“Along with the impact of Chinese tariffs on imports of US ethane and LPG [liquefied petroleum gas], this has resulted in a downward revision of 150 kb/d [thousand barrels a day] to our US oil supply forecast for this year, with growth now assessed at 490 kb/d.”
The IEA also cut its expectations for global oil demand growth this year by a third from 1.03m barrels a day to 730 kb/d, falling again to 690 kb/d in 2026.
The agency said: “While imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from the tariffs announced by the United States, concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes weighed on oil prices.”
It added that the “surprise decision” of eight Opec+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, to ramp up their output faster than expected from next month had contributed to the “downward spiral in oil prices”.
03:56 PM BST
EU faces higher tariffs as US talks break down
European exports could be hit with higher tariffs after talks between the EU and US failed to make progress.
Sources have told Bloomberg that Maros Sefcovic, the European trade commissioner, was left struggling to understand what the US government wants to achieve after he met with Howard Lutnick, the US commerce secretary, and Jamieson Greer, Mr Trump’s chief trade negotiator.
US officials suggested that the 20pc “reciprocal” tariffs that Donald Trump paused last week would not be removed completely.
Mr Trump has long been a vocal critic of the EU, accusing it of being “a foe” on trade and claiming that the bloc has “raped and pillaged” the United States.
On his “liberation day”, Mr Trump imposed 20pc tariffs on most imports from the EU, twice the percentage charged on the UK goods. But last week he backtracked after the trade war caused a global sell-off of US shares and put US bonds under pressure.
A US Trade Representative official told The Telegraph: “Numerous countries have been very responsive to the United States’ willingness to negotiate and talks are proceeding quickly. US officials have repeatedly communicated the President’s trade policy agenda to their European Union counterparts regarding the need to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers.”
The Telegraph has approached the European Commission for comment.
03:34 PM BST
Tariffs could replace US income says, says Trump
Donald Trump has doubled-down on his view that tariffs could be a major earner for the US government, even as his administration attempts to strike trade deals internationally.
He told Fox News: “There is a chance that the money from tariffs could be so great that it would replace [income tax] - you know, in the old days, from about 1870 to 1913, the tariffs were the only form of money and that’s when our nation was relatively the richest.”
Credit: Fox News
03:21 PM BST
Trump intends to devalue the dollar, says Yanis Varoufakis
Yanis Varoufakis, the economist and former finance minister of Greece, has said foes and allies alike need to wake up to Donald Trump’s plan to devalue the dollar.
He told ABC Radio: “I see all these centrists oscillating between desperation and attaching faith that the mad man will see reason or he will be ousted. They don’t realise that there is a plan here.”
Mr Varoufakis said the US president was set in his plan to devalue the dollar by around 30pc and eventually bring down tariffs to 10pc, resulting in a 40pc increase in competitiveness.
“It is exactly what Nixon did,” he said, citing the former US president’s plan to dismantle the global and monetary trading system “which the United States had so painstakingly put together in the Bretton Woods conference 1944”.
He said: “The Nixon shock created the world which we find ourselves in.”
“He created a huge amount of uncertainty, there was a lot of pain in the US, he devalued the dollar substantially to make the dollar even more hegemonic, and the plan worked.
“What we now know as the neo-liberal era, globalisation, financialisation, this was a result of the Nixon shock.”
Mr Varoufakis added that the Trump administration needs nations such as Japan to sell their dollars and buy cryptocurrency, rather than buy competitor currencies such as the pound or euro which would threaten the dollar’s hegemony.
03:12 PM BST
Wall Street pushes higher as investors hold on to hopes of tariff relief
Wall Street has continued to push upwards this afternoon, the day after Donald Trump on Monday hinted at potential exemptions for the 25pc tariffs imposed on imports of cars and auto parts.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.7pc, which the Dow has risen 0.5pc.
Analysts at Wolfe Research said: “We believe ‘peak fear’ is likely past us ... however, given volatility across stock and bond markets remains elevated, we remain defensively positioned as markets continue to be highly sensitive to incoming news flow on tariffs.”
Most analysts expect markets to remain volatile, until there is more clarity on tariffs. The S&P 500 has lost over 8pc this year, and a Bank of America survey showed global investors have slashed holdings of US stocks over the past two months.
02:56 PM BST
Trump tariff turmoil hands Wall Street banks $37bn windfall
Wall Street’s biggest banks capitalised on the turmoil in financial markets caused by Donald Trump’s tariff war as trading revenues surged to nearly $37bn (£28bn).
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup achieved their best combined trading performance in more than a decade amid the US administration’s onslaught of import tax announcements.
The equity trading desks – which buy and sell stocks – announced record performances at all five of the banks in the first three months of the year.
However, bosses gave a largely bleak outlook for the US economy despite soaring profits.
JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon said America faces “considerable turbulence” while Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon warned the US was entering “times of great uncertainty”.
02:34 PM BST
US stocks rise as Trump hints at car tariff climbdown
Wall Street’s main stock indexes rose at the opening bell after Donald Trump signalled he might do something to “help some of the car companies” hit by the 25pc US tariffs against the industry.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2pc to 40,596.82 while the benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.3pc to 5,423.54.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 0.2pc to 16,869.97.
02:12 PM BST
Bank of America traders enjoy record quarter
Traders at Bank of America enjoyed a record start to the year as they capitalised on the turmoil in financial markets triggered by Donald Trump.
Stock trading revenue rose 17pc to an all-time high of $2.2bn (£1.7bn) in the first three months of the year, helping the Wall Street lender beat analyst estimates for its earnings per share.
Shares rose 2pc in premarket trading as chairman and chief executive Brian Moynihan said it was 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth for its sales and trading division.
Banks across Wall Street have reported surging trading revenues as US trade policy has upended global markets.
Mr Moynihan said: “Though we potentially face a changing economy in the future, we believe the disciplined investments we have made for high-quality growth, our diverse set of businesses, and the team’s relentless focus on responsible growth will remain a source of strength.”
01:59 PM BST
Reynolds ‘understands grievances’ from Trump on trade
Jonathan Reynolds said he did not support tariffs but understood grievances over trading.
The Business Secretary said a global trade war would disrupt the UK’s economy but said the US had “reasonable concerns.
He told broadcasters: “I think where the US has specific concerns about, for instance the over-production of certain core products in the global economy - and steel is a good example of that - I think there’s some reasonable concerns.
“I don’t support the kind of approach to unilateral tariffs that the US has pursued. We’ve made that very clear to our US friends and colleagues, but there are issues as to how parts of trading works around the word, and there is a need to look at how we can that fairly: how we can consider where in some cases countries are not operating to the same rules that we might expect here in the UK?
“These are issues that need to be addressed as part of countries coming together to find answers to that.
“So I don’t support the kind of action the US has taken, but I do understand there are grievances there which we’ve got to appreciate in this country too.”
01:36 PM BST
Citigroup traders profit from Trump trade turmoil
Citigroup beat Wall Street estimates for its first-quarter profit as its traders reaped a windfall from volatile markets since Donald Trump returned to office.
The third-largest US lender’s earnings echoed those of Wall Street rivals, including JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, where results were also lifted by stronger stocks trading.
Chief executive Jane Fraser said: “When all is said and done, and long-standing trade imbalances and other structural shifts are behind us, the US will still be the world’s leading economy, and the dollar will remain the reserve currency.
“We continue to help our clients navigate an uncertain environment.”
Stock trading jumped in the first three months of the year as investors rejigged their portfolios during a period of heightened uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the emergence of Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model.
Citi’s markets revenue rose 12pc to $6bn in the quarter, surpassing its earlier expectations for a mid-single digit percentage gain, it said. Equity revenue surged 23pc, buoyed by more client activity.
Fixed income revenue, a major driver of Citi’s markets business, jumped 8pc to $4.5 billion, lifted by rates and currencies.
01:15 PM BST
Robert Walters warns of tariff ‘headwinds’ as it cuts staff
Robert Walters said it has cut more jobs after warning that jobseekers were becoming less confident as tariffs hit global economies, writes Max Head.
The British recruited said it had cut its headcount by 3pc in the first three months of the year as fee income declined by 16pc to £67.3m.
Income fell most sharply in Europe, down 22pc on a constant currency basis, compared to 15pc in Asia and 4pc in the UK.
Shares were down 2.2pc as chief executive Toby Fowlston said the uncertainty around President Trump’s tariffs had hit confidence among jobseekers.
He said: “More recently, increased uncertainty regarding the flow of global trade due to tariffs is likely to be a further headwind to client and candidate confidence in the near term.”
01:02 PM BST
UK borrowing costs fall as Vance hints at trade deal
The cost of government borrowing fell in Britain as JD Vance indicated there was a “good chance” of a trade deal between Britain and the US.
The 10-year UK gilt yield - a benchmark for the cost of servicing the national debt - edged lower to 4.64pc on bond markets.
It came despite yields rising across Europe and in the US amid the uncertain outlook for Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone bloc, was up nearly three basis points to 2.53pc even as the President hinted he could modify his 25pc tariffs against the car sector.
It was a similar story among shorter-dated bonds, which are more sensitive to changes in interest rates, with the two-year gilt yield down five basis points to 3.95pc and the two-year German bund yield up to 1.76pc.
Traders are betting there is a 95pc chance that the European Central Bank would cut interest rates later this week to 2.25pc.
There is a similar chance the Bank of England will also cut rates next month.
12:30 PM BST
Trump tariffs behind ‘tsunami of destabilisation’, says French PM
Donald Trump’s tariffs have shattered trust around the world, the French prime minister has said as he warned Europe’s largest economy faced a moment of truth in terms of fixing its public finances.
Francois Bayrou said: “The fact that this power has gone over to the side of the aggressors is a dramatic turn of events, a warning shot that ruins our fundamental vision of the world.”
At a press conference to discuss France’s 2026 budget plans, he added that in his view Trump had created “a tsunami of destabilisation”.
12:06 PM BST
Wall Street on track to open higher over hopes of car tariff climbdown
US stock indexes were on track to move slightly higher at the opening bell after Donald Trump indicated possible exemptions to tariffs for the car sector, writes Julia Amann.
In premarket trading, the S&P 500 was up 0.1pc, and the Nasdaq was up 0.2pc after the President said on Monday he was looking to “help some of the car companies”.
Ford edged 0.4pc higher before the opening bell, while General Motors slipped 1pc.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed in premarket trading.
11:55 AM BST
Eurozone factories ramp up output ahead of Trump tariffs
Official figures show eurozone manufactures raised production in the run-up to Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught, writes Max Head.
Industrial production rose 1.1pc in the single currency area in February compared to the previous month, according to Eurostat.
The growth was faster than analysts’ forecasts, and was mostly concentrated in perishable consumer goods production, with smaller growth rates for capital goods and intermediate goods.
Ankita Amajuri of the consultancy Capital Economics, said the increase “is not a sign of a sustained recovery for the sector”.
She said: “Instead, it is partly due to manufacturers ramping up exports before Trump’s tariffs went into effect.
“With trade tensions having increased drastically, the risks of a renewed downturn in eurozone output in the coming months have risen.”
Higher growth rates were seen in Ireland, Lithuania and Luxembourg, receiving 38.8pc, 9.1pc, and 6.6pc rises respectively.
The largest decreases were seen in Croatia, Greece and Romania who saw drops of 3.9pc, 3.6pc, and 2.1pc respectively.
Amajuri said the near term outlook for eurozone manufacturing was “poor”, with the current levels still lower than before the energy crisis triggered by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
EU exports have been hit by 10pc US tariffs, with higher 25pc tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. President Trump has also threatened tariffs on pharmaceutical products.
Amajuri said it meant there was a higher chance of the eurozone’s factory output shrinking for another year.
11:41 AM BST
Job vacancies plunge below pre-Covid levels as bosses freeze hiring
Job vacancies have fallen below pre-Covid levels for the first time as Rachel Reeves’s £25bn tax raid and Donald Trump’s trade war triggered a freeze in hiring.
The number of vacancies in the three months to March fell to 781,000, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), compared with 806,000 in the previous quarter and 905,000 a year ago.
It means job vacancies are below pre-Covid levels of 795,000 jobs for the first time since the pandemic.
The slump in hiring comes after bosses warned of rising costs after the Chancellor launched a £25bn National Insurance raid on employers and increased the minimum wage by 6.7pc.
Economists warned that US tariff policies were likely to weigh on employers’ hiring plans, meaning the outlook for the jobs market could worsen.
11:24 AM BST
China to launch stimulus package to fight tariffs, say economists
China will likely roll out a stimulus package to bolster domestic consumption amid its deepening trade war with Donald Trump’s America, an economist has said.
Helen Qiao, head of Asia economics research at Bank of America, said this month’s meeting of the Politburo – the highest decision making body of China’s Communist Party – would be one to watch.
China said its exports rose 12.4pc in February, compared to 2.3pc in the January, while imports contracted 4.3pc to bring its trade surplus with the US to a near historic high of $102.6bn in March.
She said US-bound exports had ramped up 8.9pc as consumers stockpiled ahead of April’s tariff announcements.
She said: “Bigger than expected stockpiling in March also likely means a bigger negative payback in the months ahead.
“In particular, with the rapid escalation of trade tensions over the last two weeks, including the announcement of reciprocal tariffs and subsequent retaliations, April exports face significant downside risks.
“As a result, we expect policy makers to roll out additional stimulus, especially around domestic consumption, in the coming weeks to buffer such external shock.”
11:09 AM BST
German investor morale plummets over Trump tariff plans
German investor confidence has fallen at the fastest pace in three years as Donald Trump’s trade war caused turmoil in financial markets, writes Julia Amann.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, a closely watched survey, dropped in April to minus 14 points, a 65 point decrease from March. The fall was 24 points lower than analysts had forecasted.
The drop marks the strongest decline in expectations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
ZEW president Achim Wambach said: “The erratic changes in US trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany.”
He added: “It is not only the consequences the announced reciprocal tariffs may have on global trade, but also the dynamics of their changes, that have massively increased global uncertainty. The economic expectations for Germany and the eurozone reflect this development.”
The financial market experts’ sentiment concerning the economic development in the eurozone has also plummeted. The indicator fell by 58.3 points and is currently at minus 18.5 points.
By contrast, assessments of the current economic situation in Germany showed a slight improvement, but remained low, increasing by 6.4 points to a total of minus 81 points.
11:02 AM BST
FTSE surges as Vance says ‘good chance’ of UK-US trade deal
The FTSE 100 surged as JD Vance said there was a “good chance” of Britain and the US agreeing a “great” trade deal.
The UK’s flagship stock index rose as much as 1.1pc as the Vice President said “we’re certainly working very hard with Keir Starmer’s government” to secure an agreement.
The mid-cap FTSE 250, which is more focused on the UK’s domestic market, rose as much as 1.2pc.
Stocks were also lifted after Donald Trump indicated he could amend tariffs on the car industry.
The President said he was considering a modification to the 25pc tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada and other places.
Carmaking stocks across the FTSE 350 rose as much as 2.9pc, with manufacturers and suppliers across Europe up as much as 3.2pc.
It followed Friday’s move to exempt smartphones, computers and some other electronics from his “reciprocal” tariffs.
Dan Boardman-Weston, chief executive of BRI Wealth Management, said: “Markets have been itching for any signs of positivity.
“The announcement about electronics and phones over the weekend was helpful for sentiment and you’ve seen markets rally a bit in the last few days.”
10:47 AM BST
China insists it is ‘tearing down walls’ on trade despite halting US aircraft orders
China said it is “tearing down walls” and expanding its circle of trading partners, hours after it emerged it had ordered airlines to stop taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft.
Beijing’s foreign minister said it was “shaking hands” instead of “shaking fists” a day after Xi Jinping signed commerce agreements in Vietnam.
President Donald Trump has added an eye-watering 145pc of tariffs on Chinese goods this year as part of broader reciprocal duties on all US trading partners. China hit back with levies of 125pc on US goods.
Lin Jian, a foreign ministry spokesman, said: “In the face of external uncertainties, China will insist on shaking hands rather than shaking fists, tearing down walls instead of building barriers, connecting instead of decoupling.”
Earlier today, it emerged China barred its country’s airlines from accepting deliveries from Boeing in retaliation against Trump’s trade war.
Meanwhile, the World Trade Organisation has warned the high-stakes China-US trade row could cut the shipment of goods between two economies by as much as 80pc and severely hurt global growth.
Beijing has called Trump’s tariffs strategy “a joke”, irritating Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“These are not a joke. I mean these are big numbers,” Bessent said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I think no one thinks they’re sustainable, wants them to remain here, but it’s far from a joke.”
10:26 AM BST
UK job creation ‘cannot keep pace with population growth’
The creation of jobs cannot keep pace with population growth in the UK, an economist has warned, as US vice president JD Vance reiterated his opposition to free-flowing migration policies.
Sanjay Raja at Deutsche Bank said there had been an elevated number of job cuts in the last four months paired with a slump in the number of vacancies.
Provisional data supplied by employers to HMRC showed the number of employees fell by 78,000 in March - the worst month since May 2020.
Mr Raja said: “Put simply, the number of jobs created is unable to keep up with population growth.”
He added that those outside the labour force searching for a job had hit its highest level since October 2020, with the share of economically inactive in search of a job sitting at 22pc - the highest reading since late 2020.
It comes as US vice president Vance said that open border policies had hurt trust between voters and governments across Europe.
He told UnHerd: “The entire democratic project of the West falls apart when the people keep on asking for less migration, and they keep on being rewarded by their leaders with more migration.”
10:04 AM BST
Telegraph readers: US trade deal will be ‘restrictive’ for Britain
The US is trying to separate Britain from Europe in trade negotiations, Telegraph readers have warned, adding that the US have “shown themselves to be bullies”.
Here is a selection of views from the comments section below and you can join the debate here:
09:46 AM BST
Davey: Trump cannot be allowed to bully Britain into trade deal
Donald Trump and JD Vance must not be allowed to “bully their way into a bad trade deal for the UK”, the leader of the Liberal Democrats has said.
Sir Ed Davey said that a good agreement could bring “huge benefits” to Britain but warned that the US President is an “unreliable partner who breaks deals whenever he feels like it”.
“The Government must commit to protecting our NHS, farmers and online safety laws, not barter them away just to appease Donald Trump”.
He added: “He and his sidekick JD Vance must not be allowed to bully their way into a bad trade deal for the UK.”
09:38 AM BST
Weaker-than-expected pay growth gives ‘green light’ for rate cuts
Average pay growth held steady, official figures show, giving the Bank of England the “green light” to cut interest rates in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war.
Regular earnings were 5.9pc higher in the three months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This was unchanged from the three months to January and weaker than analysts had forecast.
Total pay including bonuses rose 5.6pc, which was down from 5.8pc in the three months to January and also below predictions.
Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank said the data showed “slack in the labour market is emerging” as “trade un certainty remains rife”.
This would make it easier for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut interest rates, he said.
He said: “All in all, today’s better than expected pay data, and continued evidence of labour market weakness should allow the MPC to stick to its gradual approach to reducing Bank Rate in spite of the expected rise in inflation and uncomfortable levels of inflation expectations.”
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said: “Regular pay growth remains strong having increased slightly in the latest period.”
09:17 AM BST
China orders airlines to halt Boeing orders as trade war deepens
China was said to have ordered its airlines to stop taking any more deliveries of Boeing jets as Donald Trump’s trade war intensifies.
Beijing told carriers to halt purchases of aircraft and parts from US companies, according to Bloomberg News.
It is the latest escalation in the trade war which has seen the US impose tariffs of up to 145pc on Chinese goods, with China hitting back with 125 duties on American products.
08:55 AM BST
European shares rise over trade hopes
The FTSE 100 was up 0.8pc after JD Vance signalled a “good chance” of a UK-US trade deal.
European shares rose amid the fast-changing US tariff plans, with the Dax in Germany up 1pc and the pan-European Stoxx 600 gaining 0.7pc.
Cars and parts makers across the FTSE 350 were up as much as 2.4pc after the US president said he was considering a modification to the 25pc motoring sector tariffs imposed on imports from Mexico, Canada and other countries.
However, the Cac 40 in Paris was down 0.3pc as it was hit by a 8.1pc drop in LVMH after the world’s largest luxury group said shoppers in the US cut spending on beauty products and drinks, while sales in China stayed weak during the quarter amid Donald Trump’s trade war.
Peers including Cartier owner Richemont, Gucci parent Kering and Moncler were last down between 1.8pc and 2.2pc.
08:40 AM BST
We’re in a good position for trade deal, says minister
JD Vance’s comments about the prospect of a UK-US trade deal are “positive”, a business minister has said.
Sarah Jones said that conversations were “ongoing” but that Jonathan Reynolds, the Trade Secretary, had been engaging in “good” discussions with partners.
“We know we’re in a good position,” she told LBC.
“We are having good conversations. The Secretary of State has been having good conversations with his partners, and there is a deal there to be done, but as to when that will be done I wouldn’t be able to tell you.”
She added: “But it’s positive that the Vice President is positive about our negotiations.”
08:23 AM BST
US wants lower trade deficits, insists Vance
JD Vance said the purpose of Donald Trump’s trade war, which has sparked turmoil in financial markets, was to “lower trade deficits” around the world with the US.
The Vice President told UnHerd: “What we want to see is lower trade deficits, really across the board.
“Sometimes, a trade deficit makes sense. Like, America doesn’t produce bananas. So obviously, we’re gonna be importing bananas, not exporting bananas.
“So with certain product categories and maybe even with some countries, a small trading deficit can be justified.”
Britain has a small trade surplus with the US, compared to large deficits with China and the EU.
08:04 AM BST
UK markets rise after Vance hints at trade deal
The FTSE 100 opened higher after JD Vance said there was a “good chance” of a “great agreement” between Britain and the US on trade.
The UK’s blue-chip index climbed 0.2pc to 8,147.36 at the open, a day after climbing 2.1pc.
The mid-cap FTSE 250 was little changed at 18,990.07, having jumped 2.5pc on Monday.
07:59 AM BST
Trade deal is ‘unmissable chance for growth’, say Tories
A UK-US trade deal is an “unmissable chance for growth” that must be gripped by the Government, the shadow business secretary has said.
Andrew Griffith told The Telegraph that such an agreement would be a “lifeline” for the British economy.
Responding to JD Vance’s remarks on there being a “good chance” of the two countries securing a trade deal, the shadow business secretary said: “This is an unmissable chance for growth - something that is thin on the ground under Labour.
“Starmer must grip this lifeline, not once again fumble the ball.”
07:56 AM BST
Vance says European defence ‘subsidised’ by the US
JD Vance said Europe needed to avoid becoming a “permanent security vassal of the United States” as he criticised a lack of investment in militaries.
The vice president singled out Britain, France and Poland as “obvious exceptions” that “prove the rule, that European leaders have radically underinvested in security, and that has to change”.
“The reality is — it’s blunt to say it, but it’s also true — that Europe’s entire security infrastructure, for my entire life, has been subsidised by the United States of America,” he told UnHerd.
He said: “Most European nations don’t have militaries that can provide for their reasonable defence.”
He added: “It’s not good for Europe to be the permanent security vassal of the United States.”
07:48 AM BST
Pound rises amid trade deal hopes
The pound edged higher after JD Vance said there was a “good chance” of a trade deal between Britain and the US.
Sterling gained 0.1pc to just under $1.32, having surged 3.6pc since April 4 in the days after Donald Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs.
The pound was also up 0.2pc against the euro at €1.164 and up 0.3pc against the yen to 189.1.
07:41 AM BST
Watch: Vance drops college football championship trophy
US vice-president JD Vance dropped the NCAA championship trophy as he and Donald Trump welcomed Ohio State’s American football team to the White House on Monday:
Credit: Reuters
07:37 AM BST
The tariff story so far
Britain had originally looked in a favourable position when Donald Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs earlier this month.
The President had imposed 10pc levies on British goods, which compared favourably at the time to 20pc against the EU, 34pc against China and 46pc against manufacturing nation Vietnam.
However, Trump rowed back on the heavier “reciprocal” tariffs, suspending them for 90 days, after upheaval in bond markets risked a sharp rise in US government borrowing costs.
This left all nations facing the blanket 10pc tariff, except China, upon which the US eventually imposed 125pc duties.
Countries are also contending with the US 25pc tariffs on metals and car imports.
07:27 AM BST
Vance: Britain has ‘more reciprocal relationship’ with US than Germany
JD Vance said the “reciprocal relationship” between the US and UK gave Britain a more advantageous position than other European countries when it comes to negotiating new trade arrangements.
The vice president told UnHerd: “With the United Kingdom, we have a much more reciprocal relationship than we have with, say, Germany.
“While we love the Germans, they are heavily dependent on exporting to the United States but are pretty tough on a lot of American businesses that would like to export into Germany.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will aim to continue negotiations for an economic deal with the US later this month when she travels to Washington to attend the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings with other finance ministers.
07:22 AM BST
Business in ‘state of despondency’ as confidence plummets
British businesses have been left in a “state of despondency” by Donald Trump’s trade wars and Rachel Reeves’s tax rises, with confidence at its lowest level since the mini-Budget crisis.
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW)’s quarterly survey of business confidence has plunged into negative territory for the first time since the end of 2022 during Liz Truss’s ill-fated premiership.
Alan Vallance, ICAEW chief executive, said Labour’s tax raid and US tariffs were to blame. He said: “These findings reveal a state of despondency among businesses as they stave off a blizzard of extra outlays, including the rise in National Insurance.
“Meanwhile, the US tariff announcements have loaded on exceptional uncertainty and the very real prospect of higher costs and global economic woes.”
A record 56pc of companies warned that taxation was placing a growing strain on operations, after Ms Reeves’s £25bn tax hike on employers took effect in April.
07:19 AM BST
Vance says ‘good chance’ of UK-US trade deal
JD Vance has said there is a “good chance” that Britain and the US can secure a trade deal amid the turmoil caused by Donald Trump’s tariff war.
The US vice president said “we’re certainly working very hard with Keir Starmer’s government” to secure an agreement.
Vance pointed to the President’s deep affection for the Royal family – particularly Queen Elizabeth II – and his business links to the UK among the reasons why he is keen to secure a trade deal with Britain.
“The President really loves the United Kingdom,” he told UnHerd.
“He loved the Queen. He admires and loves the King. It is a very important relationship.
“And he’s a businessman and has a number of important business relationships in [Britain].
“But I think it’s much deeper than that. There’s a real cultural affinity. And of course, fundamentally America is an Anglo country.”
He added: “I think there’s a good chance that, yes, we’ll come to a great agreement that’s in the best interest of both countries”.
Britain was hit with a 10pc tariff under Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, in addition to the President’s 25pc duties on steel and aluminium, and cars and car parts.
06:45 AM BST
Good morning
Thanks for joining us. Business confidence has plummeted to its lowest levels since Liz Truss’s mini-Budget crisis as Donald Trump’s trade war deepens.
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) said Labour’s tax raid and US tariffs were to blame.
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What happened overnight
Asian benchmarks mostly rose, echoing a rally on Wall Street after President Donald Trump relaxed some of his tariffs, for now at least.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 surged 0.9pc to 34,336.74.
Carmakers were among the biggest gainers. Toyota jumped 4.9pc, while Honda gained 4.8pc.
Electronics and entertainment giant Sony’s stock price added 3.1pc, while Nintendo was up 0.3pc. Semiconductor maker Tokyo Electron rose 1.1pc, while Renesas was up 1.4pc.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5pc to 7,787.40 and South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.8pc to 2,475.25.
Chinese shares wobbled, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipping and then inching less than 0.1pc higher to 21,423.44. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1pc to 3,260.55.
On Wall Street, stocks rose worldwide after President Donald Trump relaxed some of his tariffs, for now at least.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.8pc, closing at 5,405.97. Trading, however, was still shaky and it briefly gave back all of its big early gain of 1.8pc. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8pc, to finish at 40,524.79, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6, to close at 16,831.48.
In the bond market, benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 4.378pc from 4.463pc late on Friday.