In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Yinson Holdings Berhad (KLSE:YINSON) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)
-RM2.09b
RM599.3m
RM887.0m
RM1.12b
RM1.33b
RM1.53b
RM1.70b
RM1.85b
RM1.99b
RM2.11b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Est @ 26.01%
Est @ 19.27%
Est @ 14.55%
Est @ 11.25%
Est @ 8.94%
Est @ 7.32%
Est @ 6.18%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 16%
-RM1.8k
RM444
RM565
RM612
RM628
RM619
RM593
RM555
RM513
RM468
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM3.2b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM17b÷ ( 1 + 16%)10= RM3.8b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM7.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM2.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
KLSE:YINSON Discounted Cash Flow March 9th 2024
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yinson Holdings Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Yinson Holdings Berhad
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by .
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Energy Services market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market.
Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
Annual revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Yinson Holdings Berhad, we've compiled three pertinent items you should look at:
Future Earnings: How does YINSON's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the KLSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
