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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it completely lacks a track record of revenue and profit. And in their study titled Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street?' Leuz et. al. found that it is 'quite common' for investors to lose money by buying into 'pump and dump' schemes.
In contrast to all that, I prefer to spend time on companies like Central Petroleum (ASX:CTP), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While that doesn't make the shares worth buying at any price, you can't deny that successful capitalism requires profit, eventually. In comparison, loss making companies act like a sponge for capital - but unlike such a sponge they do not always produce something when squeezed.
See our latest analysis for Central Petroleum
How Fast Is Central Petroleum Growing Its Earnings Per Share?
In business, though not in life, profits are a key measure of success; and share prices tend to reflect earnings per share (EPS). So like a ray of sunshine through a gap in the clouds, improving EPS is considered a good sign. You can imagine, then, that it almost knocked my socks off when I realized that Central Petroleum grew its EPS from AU$0.0065 to AU$0.039, in one short year. Even though that growth rate is unlikely to be repeated, that looks like a breakout improvement.
Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. To cut to the chase Central Petroleum's EBIT margins dropped last year, and so did its revenue. That is, not a hint of euphemism here, suboptimal.
You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. For finer detail, click on the image.
Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Central Petroleum.
Are Central Petroleum Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?
Like that fresh smell in the air when the rains are coming, insider buying fills me with optimistic anticipation. Because oftentimes, the purchase of stock is a sign that the buyer views it as undervalued. However, insiders are sometimes wrong, and we don't know the exact thinking behind their acquisitions.
The first bit of good news is that no Central Petroleum insiders reported share sales in the last twelve months. Even better, though, is that the , Troy Harry, bought a whopping AU$326k worth of shares, paying about AU$0.04 per share, on average. Big buys like that give me a sense of opportunity; actions speak louder than words.