(Oil & Gas 360) – While Very Nice, Warmer-Than-Normal Dominating Is Minimizing Oil & Natural Gas, Cold Air & Pent-Up Demand Paint A Bright, Positive Future.

Despite Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions temporarily disrupting moving oil, a growing economy setting stock market record highs is also evident in YOY growth resumed in demand for the petroleum that fuels prosperity-producing movement.  Growth, not recession the direction we head is evident in the S&P 500 and Down Jones Industrial Average setting new record highs of late.  Growth being fueled is also evident in the quantity of distillate oil (diesel and heating), gasoline and jet kerosene averaging 14.625 million barrels per day (mmbd) shipped the last four weeks (Figure 7, red line), 0.433 more than last year (blue line) a  3.1% year-over-year (YOY) increase.  And that despite Storm and Hurricane shipping disruptions (blue dot).

Most encouraging is seeing pent-up demand showing up Over There.  At this time last year the four-weeks average of U.S. petroleum-product exports was at 6.234 mmbd (Figure 8, blue line), less than two years ago (blue line).  Exports averaging 6.706 the latest four weeks (red line) is a very nice 0.472 (7.6%) YOY increase.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increasing a consensus-beating 5.5 mmb last week is also a high-visibility data point encouraging bearishness. Yesterday morning the Department of Energy reported that U.S. Commercial crude oil inventory increased 5.5 mmb last week to 426.0 (Figure 9, red line).  An increase of less than 1.0 was expected.  That and this up 13.0 since September 20 has helped keep the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down around $70 per barrel.

By Michael Smolinski with Energy Directions for oilandgas360.com