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One thing we could say about the analysts on Energy Fuels Inc. (TSE:EFR) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. At CA$6.60, shares are up 5.3% in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering Energy Fuels, is for revenues of US$33m in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 58% reduction in Energy Fuels' sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around US$0.22 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$42m and losses of US$0.21 per share in 2025. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Energy Fuels
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$13.50, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 68% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 61% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Energy Fuels' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Energy Fuels' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on Energy Fuels after today.