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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But really bad investments should be rare. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Endava plc (NYSE:DAVA) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 84%. That would be a disturbing experience. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 42% in the last year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 33% in thirty days. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
While the last three years has been tough for Endava shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
View our latest analysis for Endava
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years that the share price fell, Endava's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 57% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 45% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 182.87.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Endava's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 9.8% in the last year, Endava shareholders lost 42%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Endava , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.