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Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to easily beat Wall Street's expectations when it reports third quarter earnings Wednesday morning before the bell, especially for its blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound. The GLP-1 drug continues to be a focal point of the company's near-term outlook.
Eli Lilly is expected to report $12.17 billion in revenue for the quarter and adjusted earnings per share of $1.51, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
Mizuho's healthcare expert Jared Holz wrote in a note to clients today that sales for Zepbound are estimated at $1.7 billion, while diabetes drug Mounjaro could slightly miss estimates of $3.8 billion as more patients turn to Zepbound for its higher-dosage weight-loss benefit.
And that tracks what investors are watching, Holz said.
"Some have asserted that the stock and group have peaked," he wrote. "Given the complexities around much of the Healthcare sector and difficulty establishing a simple thesis for the vast majority of names in Pharma/Biotech or otherwise, we think investors will remain very engaged in weight-loss names."
Lilly posted $4.3 billion in revenue last quarter from the two drugs.
Lilly's value as a large pharma company isn't only tied to the GLP-1 market. It is also developing an Alzheimer's drug candidate, which could compete with current market lead Leqembi from Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai.
A recent study showed that with lower starting doses, the potential for brain swelling could decrease. That has been one of the concerning side effects of all Alzheimer's drugs, including Lilly's Kisunla, which is now in late-stage trials.
But the sheer potential market for obesity has made Lilly's stock soar in recent years and has put the company on course to potentially become the first trillion-dollar healthcare company.
It's why the company has worked hard to end the shortage of its drugs, known by the key ingredient tirzepatide — though the FDA is now considering putting its weight-loss drugs back on the shortage list. In addition, Lilly launched a direct-to-consumer platform that would allow cash-paying patients to access vials of the drug, rather than auto-injector pens, at a discounted rate.
Lilly reports its third quarter earnings Wednesday at 7 a.m. ET.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on most social media platforms @AnjKhem.