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Eli Lilly (LLY) revised its revenue outlook on Tuesday for the fourth quarter of 2024 on weaker-than-expected demand for its popular weight-loss drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro.
The drugmaker said it now expects global revenue to be about $13.5 billion for the quarter, approximately $400 million below the guidance range it issued at the end of October.
“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter,” said Lilly CEO David Ricks, referring to demand for the company’s medications that mimic the effects of hormones known as incretins, which regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite.
Shares of Lilly fell 6% Tuesday morning.
Lilly projects $3.5 billion in revenue from Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound. Ricks said the company expects to see continued demand for weight-loss drugs in 2025. As a result, he said manufacturing capacity will be about 60% higher in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2024.
Last month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that the shortage of tirzepatide — the active ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound — was officially over.
After a review, the agency determined that Eli Lilly has enough supply to meet and exceed current and future demand of the drugs. The FDA gave compounding pharmacies 60 to 90 days, depending on the type of facility, to stop selling off-brand versions of tirzepatide.
Ricks told Bloomberg News Monday that it expects its experimental weight-loss pill, orforglipron, to receive regulatory approval as early as next year. He said that pills would be easier to manufacture en masse, and easier for patients to consume, than rival medications.
Most major weight-loss drugs are delivered by weekly injections, including Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy and Ozempic. A few pills have emerged, however: Novo sells a pill form of semaglutide, under the brand name Rybelsus, for treating type 2 diabetes.
— Bruce Gil and William Gavin contributed to this article.