Elders Limited (ASX:ELD) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 2:37 PM 4 min read

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Elders is:

8.0% = AU$67m ÷ AU$833m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.08 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Elders' Earnings Growth And 8.0% ROE

On the face of it, Elders' ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 8.0%, we may spare it some thought. On the other hand, Elders reported a fairly low 3.3% net income growth over the past five years. Remember, the company's ROE is not particularly great to begin with. Hence, this does provide some context to low earnings growth seen by the company.

We then performed a comparison between Elders' net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 3.3% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:ELD Past Earnings Growth November 8th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is ELD fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Elders Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 54% (or a retention ratio of 46%), most of Elders' profits are being paid to shareholders. This definitely contributes to the low earnings growth seen by the company.

Additionally, Elders has paid dividends over a period of seven years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 65% over the next three years. However, Elders' future ROE is expected to rise to 11% despite the expected increase in the company's payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Elders' performance. While the company has posted a decent earnings growth, We do feel that the earnings growth number could have been even higher, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings at a higher rate of return. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.