Elastic (NYSE:ESTC) soars 30% this week, taking one-year gains to 46%

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The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Elastic N.V. (NYSE:ESTC) share price is up 46% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 33% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 30% in three years.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Elastic

We don't think that Elastic's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

Over the last twelve months, Elastic's revenue grew by 19%. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. While the share price performed well, gaining 46% over twelve months, you could argue the revenue growth warranted it. If revenue stays on trend, there may be plenty more share price gains to come. But it's crucial to check profitability and cash flow before forming a view on the future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:ESTC Earnings and Revenue Growth November 26th 2024

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Elastic in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Elastic shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over one year. That's better than the annualised return of 8% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Elastic has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.