The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted Monday morning for the first time since 2007, sending equities into a tailspin and raising concerns about a recession. But strategists including Mohamed El-Erian are sending a message: Don’t panic.

El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said there are risks in the economic environment. However, the traditional inversion signal needs to be viewed cautiously.

“I think the traditional signal is not as valid as the distortions are in driving the yield curve,” he told Yahoo Finance’s On the Move.

Inversion of the curve — that is, when the yield on the two-year Treasury exceeds that of the 10-year — has presaged seven of the last recessions. It effectively means investors are more confident about the long term than the short term, as they’re being paid more to take the risk of holding shorter-term government debt.

El-Erian said in this case, there are other factors.

“One, negative rates in Europe. And we've now got $16 trillion of bonds trading at negative yields because of what's happening in Europe. And the second distortion is this unhealthy co-dependence between markets and the Fed,” he said.

That’s all driving investors into the longer end of the curve in the U.S. — therefore depressing the yield in a way less connected to sentiment about the nation’s economy. (Treasury yields move inversely to price).

Even if there is a recession, there are mitigating factors that make it less likely it will be as severe as the financial crisis-era downturn.

“The good news — and there is good news— is one, the source of the big shock in 2008, the payments and settlement system, the ability of people to trust their counterpart, that risk is very low. Central banks learned a very painful lesson in 2008, and the payments and settlement system is very robust,” El-Erian said.

“The second bit of good news is that the banks that transmit shocks are in a good place in the U.S. So you won't get what I call the sudden stop, what people worry about most — the loss of trust in financial markets that then brings everything to a standstill.”

Other strategists point to the strength of the U.S. consumer for reassurance.

“I think the consumer's in a much different place than they were in 2007-2008,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. “And if you actually looked at the debt-to-equity ratios on the consumer balance sheet, they've been completely rebuilt to 1985 levels. And the cost of that debt is still very low.”

He suggested that if a recession is coming, it’s not imminent. He is closely watching corporate credit spreads, which haven’t been sending the same negative signal as Treasuries.