Economists are questioning Russia's economic data, seeing a more troubled picture
Thibault Spirlet,Huileng Tan
5 min read
Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that 2024 was a strong year for his country's economy.Getty Images
Russia's latest economic figures show it had a strong 2024.
But economists are suspicious, believing its data don't stand up to scrutiny and is inflated.
This week, Trump threatened high tariffs and more sanctions if Russia doesn't end the Ukraine war.
Economists are questioning Russia's latest economic data, as they say recently published and cited figures don't seem to match its real economic predicament.
During an economic meeting on Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin claimed that 2024 was a "strong year" for Russia.
He cited what he described as a manageable 1.7% deficit, and a 26% increase in non-oil and gas revenue to 25.6 trillion rubles, about $257.9 billion.
A day earlier, Russia's finance ministry released a report saying that the country's budget revenue in December was over 4 trillion rubles, or about $40 billion — a 28% increase compared to December 2023, and the highest level recorded since 2011.
However, some are growing skeptical of the data shared by Russian authorities.
"But when you dig a bit deeper, you'll see that's not the case," she said, pointing to a report commissioned by the Swedish government.
That analysis, published in September by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, found mounting imbalances and an inconsistent policy mix in the Russian economy — including massive stimulus and subsidies amid record-high interest rates.
The report also warned that official statistics like GDP growth and inflation rates were tainted by the Kremlin's propaganda machine and "manipulated to support the narrative that the Russian economy is stable."
"It's very clear that Russia's economy isn't as strong as Putin wants us to believe," Svantesson said, pointing to capital flight and nighttime satellite photos as potential evidence.
Iikka Korhonen, head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, made a similar statement.
Korhonen said that Russia has largely stopped publishing its foreign trade data and fiscal data, in sharp contrast to before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"Of course, Putin will put a positive spin on all pieces of data," he said.
As such, the published data may be correct, he added, "but they always leave out negative data and important context."
Economists on the MMI Telegram channel, a Russian discussion group, also highlighted a December Bank of Russia report on the country's balance of payments.
On Wednesday, the group said that Russia's fiscal surplus dropped last month to its lowest level since August 2020, at an estimated $5.6 billion.
While the Bank of Russia described the fiscal surplus as "stable," the MMI Telegram channel said $5.6 billion was not enough to cover the deficit in trade in services, repayment of foreign debt, and demand for foreign assets from citizens and businesses.
It added that the falling fiscal surplus was also piling pressure on the ruble, which fell to a two-year low against the dollar in November.
In a note on Thursday, TsMAKP, a think tank linked to the Russian government, highlighted what it said appeared to be inconsistencies and miscalculations in Russia's official economic data.
It said that while reported GDP growth of 3.8-4% in 2024 appeared strong, real production activity has stagnated since the third quarter of 2023 and investment estimates appeared inflated.
At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, has questioned Russia's finance ministry report, which said that Russia's revenue hit a record high of about $40 billion in December.
It said Russia's figures failed to account for its unsustainable defense spending, high rates of inflation, a widening deficit, and the depletion of its sovereign wealth fund.
Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist and former fellow at the Atlantic Council, said this month that Russia's financial reserves could run out before the end of the year.
Not everyone is so down on the Russian economy.
Vasily Astrov, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, acknowledged indicators showing a slowdown in Russia's GDP growth and high inflation, but said that Russia's defense spending of 6% of its GDP could be sustainable for "quite some time."
And Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told BI in an interview last month that with all "extraordinary" factors remaining unchanged, he didn't see any economic "collapse or meltdown" in Russia.
Anders Olofsgård, a deputy director at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, said oil and gas exports are by far the most important lubricant of the Russian economy, so global prices, the discount on Russian oil, and the ability to shut down Russia's shadow fleet are key.
Right now, however, Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University, said that Putin "needs to show that he can continue this war, that his economy is capable of sustaining the Kremlin war machine for the next 2-3 years."
Otherwise, he said, Putin's "future negotiation position will be drastically undermined."
