Key Takeaways
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President Donald Trump is set to give a major speech Tuesday against a backdrop of increasing anxiety among the public about his economic policies.
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Measures of consumer confidence have declined since Trump took office, and polls show most disapprove of his handling of the economy.
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Although many indicators show the economy remains healthy, red flags have started to appear, including an expected decrease in the GDP in the first quarter, setting off concerns that a recession could be on the way.
President Donald Trump is set to address a nation that's growing increasingly uneasy about his economic policies.
Trump is scheduled to make his first major speech since his inauguration on Tuesday night, when he will address both chambers of Congress. The speech will be a chance to reassure a public that is beginning to sour on his agenda of rapidly cutting government spending, deporting immigrants and firing federal workers while imposing tariffs on the nation's top trading partners, according to measures of consumer confidence as well as recent opinion polls.
Consumer surveys from January and early February show confidence dropping rapidly, reversing an uptick following Trump's election. Consumers anticipate higher inflation in the year ahead because of Trump's tariffs likely driving up prices, according to a poll by the University of Michigan. Americans give a thumbs-down to Trump's handling of the economy overall, with 54% of U.S. adults disapproving and 42% approving, according to a February Gallup poll.
A separate survey by NPR, PBS, and Marist found that 55% saw Trump's cuts to federal spending doing more harm than good. The poll also found most disapproved of Elon Musk, Trump's influential billionaire advisor, and his DOGE task force that has cancelled contracts and fired employees across many government agencies.
Some Data Points Flash Warnings Signs
Hard economic data was flashing warning signs about the Trump-era economy as well.
The inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product was on track to shrink at an annual rate of 2.8% in the first quarter of the year, a sharp reversal from 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Now tracker, which projects the GDP figures based on economic data as it comes in. It would be the first quarter of negative growth in three years. Downturns in retail sales, consumer spending, and home sales also raised eyebrows among economists and sparked renewed concerns that the economy is heading towards a recession.
"The economy appears to be gagging on the uncertainty created by the haphazard economic policymaking happening in DC," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, posted on X, the social media platform (formerly Twitter). "Tariff wars, DOGE cuts to jobs and government programs and agencies, and deportations are sowing confusion, which puts a pall on investment, hiring and spending."
To be sure, other indicators of economic performance have stayed healthy. The unemployment rate hovered at a historically low level in January, an important inflation measure receded that month, and business leaders grew more confident about the economy in late January and early February, in contrast to consumer attitudes, according to a survey of CEOs by The Conference Board.
Still, Trump may have his work cut out to win over an increasingly skeptical public. The president took to social media Monday to set high expectations for his speech.
"TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG," he posted on his Truth Social platform. "I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!"
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