This week will also bring us an inflation report, US-Russia talks, and a lot of Fed talks. The following is a list of earnings slated for release January 10-14, along with a few previews. Investors will carefully monitor the latest news on the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant to see how it affects earnings in 2022.
Delta Air Lines, one of the major players in the United States aviation industry, is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11 in the fourth quarter, more than doubling compared to a huge loss of $-2.53 per share seen in the same period a year ago.
The Airline company, which provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo throughout the United States and across the world, is forecast to report revenue growth of over 130% to around $9.2 billion. It is worth noting that in the last two years, the airline has beaten consensus earnings estimates just four times.
According to ZACKS Research, based on strong passenger demand during the holidays, Delta Air Lines raised its guidance for the fourth quarter of 2021. It hopes to achieve “meaningful” profitability in 2022 despite Omicron-induced woes. In the December quarter, the airline expects to make approximately $200 million in adjusted pre-tax profit, according to an SEC filing.
Compared to the same period last year, Delta expects to recover 74% of its adjusted total revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) in the fourth quarter. In 2022, DAL expects its capacity to reach approximately 90% of its level in 2019. In 2023 and beyond, it expects to achieve pre-pandemic levels of capacity. With adjusted revenues (ex-refinery) exceeding $50 billion in 2024, the company expects earnings per share to surpass $7, ZACKS analysts noted.
“Mgmt. laid out a plan to meet and exceed pre-pandemic financial benchmarks by 2024 by building a best-in-class premium airline. The plan is sound and targets appear conservative though the near-term trajectory remains outside of mgmt.’s control. We see line of sight to the stock doubling from here,” noted Ravi Shanker, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“Why Overweight? Delta Air Lines (DAL) has some of the strongest customer satisfaction numbers among the other Legacy peers, while also commanding a higher PRASM, making it our preferred Legacy carrier. While DAL cannot escape Legacy overhangs (delayed International/corporate recovery, strained balance sheet), it should rise with the industry tide. The risk-reward looks attractive.”
IN THE SPOTLIGHT: BLACKROCK, CITIGROUP, JPMORGAN, WELLS FARGO
BLACKROCK: The world’s largest asset manager is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $10.14 per share, which represents a year-on-year decline of about 0.4% from $10.18 per share seen in the same period a year ago.
The New York-based multinational investment management corporation would post revenue growth of nearly 15% to around $5.15 billion. The company has been able to beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates most of the time in the last two years.
“We believe BlackRock (BLK) is best positioned on the asset mgmt barbell given leading iShares ETF platform, multi-asset & alts combined with technology/Aladdin offerings that should drive ~11% EPS CAGR (2020-23e) via ~6% avg LT organic growth,” noted Michael Cyprys, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“We see further growth ahead for Alts, iShares, international penetration, and the institutional market in the US. Recently acquired Aperio also bolsters solutions offering and organic growth. We expect the premium to widen as BLK takes share in evolving industry and executes on improving organic revenue growth trajectory.”
CITIGROUP: The New York City-based investment bank is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $1.87 per share, which represents a year-on-year decline of about 10% from $2.07 per share seen in the same period a year ago. But the U.S. third-largest banking institution would post revenue growth of nearly 4% to $17.06 billion.
“While the stock is cheap at 0.6x NTM BVPS, and new CEO is taking strong, proactive strategic action to boost returns closer to peers, we believe these actions will take time to play out,” noted Betsy Graseck, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“Citi is exiting 13 consumer businesses in Asia and EMEA, and focusing on higher growth areas of US consumer, Asia WM, International wholesale and consumer payments. These actions could drive ROE higher than the 9% we are modelling for 2023, but we expect the stock will only start to fully reflect this once revenues begins to accelerate. Citi benefits less than peers from higher rates, and we expect some of our more rate sensitive stocks will outperform as the Fed begins to raise rates next year.”
JPMORGAN: The leading global financial services firm with assets over $2 trillion is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $2.94 per share, which represents a year-on-year decline of over 20% from $3.79 per share seen in the same period a year ago. But one of the world’s oldest, largest, and best-known financial institutions would post revenue growth of just over 2% to $29.9 billion.
WELLS FARGO: The fourth-largest U.S. lender is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $1.11 per share, which represents a year-on-year growth of over 70% from $0.64 per share seen in the same period a year ago. The San Francisco, California-based multinational financial services company would post revenue growth of more than 4% to $18.8 billion.
“Wells Fargo (WFC) benefit to EPS from rising rates is the highest in the group, with each ~50bps increase in FF driving ~15% increase in EPS; 50bps in long-end rates drives ~7% to EPS WFC is in a strong position to monetize higher rates, as cash stands at 15% of earning assets, 7% points above pre-pandemic levels,” noted Betsy Graseck, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“WFC is taking action to restructure its business mix as it works to exit the Fed consent order/asset cap and reduce its expense base. Excess capital at Wells stands at 10% of market cap vs. 5% for median Large Cap Bank, enabling a net buyback yield of 10% in 2022 and a total cash return of 12%. Risks around the timing of asset cap removal and further regulatory action remain.”
