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Shareholders might have noticed that TUI AG (ETR:TUI1) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to €6.79 in the past week. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 4.5% short of analyst estimates at €3.7b, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was €0.60, 12% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Following the latest results, TUI's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €24.7b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 3.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 16% to €1.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €24.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.14 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on TUI's earnings potential following these results.
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There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €10.45, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on TUI, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €16.00 and the most bearish at €7.70 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that TUI's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that TUI is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.