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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TARS) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$28m and the statutory loss per share was US$1.01, smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals from seven analysts is for revenues of US$139.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a substantial 228% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$3.88. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$103.3m and losses of US$4.22 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
The consensus price target rose 5.9% to US$55.56, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$67.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4x growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 30% a year over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.3% annually. Not only are Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.